287,000 Extra deaths beyond CoVID-19 fatalities
Analysis per year per 10 year adult cohort from 2020 through 2022 so far
There follows an analysis of pre and post pandemic deaths using Crude Mortality Rates for ten year adult age cohorts
Excluding the under 14 and 85+ age cohorts, the intervening 10-year age cohorts show that excess deaths for the US since 1 January 2020, NOT explained by deaths with CoVID-19 (C19) present, totalled around 287,000.
It is suspected that only around 5% of deaths occurred with ONLY C19 present. The CDC data shows that half of those that succumbed with C19 present were 75 or older – around three quarters were over 65 years old.
One can’t help but wonder if the standard RT-PCR test was applied in 2015, say, whether we would have had a CoVID-19 pandemic back then!
Of note in the ten-year age cohort sections describing each adult cohort, is the “spike” in “beyond C19” deaths in calendar 2021.
More work to follow on this point, but earlier work from a German professor in January 2022 on UK mortality numbers provides a strong hint and resonates with other similar work underway in the Netherlands.
https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/21/analysis-by-german-prof-thousands-of-hidden-deaths-daily-may-be-greatest-medical-debacle-in-human-history/
The following analysis is not a qualitative assessment of the CDC’s reporting. It only describes the data on CDC databases.
A few caveats. Data for 2022 has been annualized to enable an approximate comparison with previous calendar years. The CDC states that numbers for 2021 and 2022 are provisional. CDC data shows constant populations per age cohort at 2020 levels for 2021 and 2022. The CDC Wonder database shows mortality data to 20 August 2022. However, the CDC reported C19 deaths for a full period from 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 (not broken down by calendar year), so a (dodgy) assumption has been made to annualize C19 mortality numbers. So be wary of the mix and match of end dates between overall mortality data and C19 mortality data. I have compiled the data in Microsoft Excel without using pivot tables or using Microsoft Access. Please feel free to replicate it, so is EOE. I will supply the workbook on request.
The crude rate (CR) is defined as the number per 100,000 of the population in each age cohort.
Sources:
WONDER Message (cdc.gov) https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D176;jsessionid=1399C62A595649C34CB8A28AFE05
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Age-in-Years-/3apk-4u4f
For 15-24 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 and 2019 were 70, the CR increased to 84 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 90 before falling back to 77 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was a little under 7 (per 100,000) equivalent to 2.4 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of 14 in 2020 and 20 in 2021 - from 2018 and 2019 levels of 70 - is NOT explained by the impact of C19. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 5,000+7,500+1,900 for a total of just under 14,500.
For 25-34 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 and 2019 were 129, increased to 160 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 179 before falling back to 151 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was a little over 25 (per 100,000) equivalent to a little over 9 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of 31 in 2020 and 50 in 2021 - from 2018 and 2019 levels of 129 - is NOT explained by the impact of C19. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 10,000+18,500+6,100 for a total of just over 34,600.
For 35-44 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 were 195 and for 2019 were 199. These increased to 248 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 297, before falling back to 251 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 68 (per 100,000) equivalent to 25 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of 50 in 2020 and 100 in 2021 - from 2018 and 2019 levels of 195 and 199 - is NOT explained by the impact of C19. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 11,000+31,400+12,400 for a total of just over 54,700.
For 45-54 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 were 396 and for 2019 were 392. These increased to 474 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 535, before falling back to 443 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 155 (per 100,000) equivalent to 57 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of 80 in 2020 and 140 in 2021 - from 2018 and 2019 levels of 396 and 392 - is NOT explained by the impact of C19. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 9,000+34,000+3,200 for a total of just under 47,200.
For 55-64 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 were 887 and for 2019 were 883. These increased to 1,039 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 1,128, before falling back to 976 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 359 (per 100,000) equivalent to 131 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of in 2020 154 and 243 in 2021 - from 2018 and 2019 levels of 887 and 883 - is NOT explained by the impact of C19. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 9,600+47,200-17,000 for a total of just under 40,000. Note the reduction in excess deaths for 2022.
For 65-74 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 were 1,783 and for 2019 were 1,765. These increased to 2,072 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 2,225, before falling back to 2,037 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 737 (per 100,000) equivalent to 270 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of around 300 in 2020 and 444 in 2021 - from 2018 and 2019 levels of 1,783 and 1,765 - is NOT explained by the impact of C19. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 9,300+59,000-2,200 for a total of just over 66,000. (Note the negative excess for 2022).
For 75-84 year olds, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 were 4,386 and for 2019 were 4,308. These increased to 4,997 in 2020, increased again in 2021 to 5,043, before falling back to 4,953 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 1,571 (per 100,000) equivalent to 575 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of around 560 in 2020 is explained by C19 but the increase of 700 in 2021 is not fully explained. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were around 12,300+20,000+5,000 for a total of just over 37,000.
For those 85+, pre-pandemic overall CR’s for 2018 were 13,451 and for 2019 were 13,229. These increased to 15,211 in 2020, decreased in 2021 to 14,129, before falling back to 13,863 (annualized) for 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 4,143 (per 100,000) equivalent to 1,517 per annum. This implies that the CR increase of around 1,900 in 2020 is NOT explained by C19 but the increase of 900 in 2021 is fully explained. The annualized overall CR for 2022 remains elevated compared to 2018 and 2019 levels.
For under 1 year olds, the overall CR was around 555 for 2018 and 2019, dropping to around 530 over 2020 and 2021 and is an annualized rate of 485 so far in 2022. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 7 (per 100,000) equivalent to 2.6 per annum. The “beyond C19” excess deaths for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were a little under negative 5,000 (5,000 fewer deaths compared to the average for 2018 and 2019).
For 1-4 year olds, the overall CR has remained more or less constant at 25. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was a little over 1 (per 100,000) equivalent to 0.4 per annum.
For 5-14 year olds, the overall CR has remained around 14 (per 100,000) throughout the entire pandemic. The full period C19 CR for 1 January 2020 to 24 September 2022 was 1 (per 100,000) equivalent to 0.4 per annum.
There is no significant difference throughout the entire pandemic for under 14 year olds. The CR for under 1 year olds was showing a distinct improvement B£FORE the FDA authorized injections down to 6 month old babies, whilst there has been no significant impact for 1-4 year olds or 5-14 year olds.