A quick look at Resident Biden’s election campaign track record – compared to pre C19 expectations under President Trump – all about the interest on Federal and consumer debt slowly destroying the US!
I scanned the resident’s statement here:
FACT SHEET: The President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2025 | The White House
And thought “the claims made don’t seem to stack up!”
So, I thought a little more and [ pondered the impacts on key indicators like GDP and consumer spending on these numbers – mostly from the impact of inflation and interest rates.
GDP = the sum of Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports less Imports) = C + I + G + (X-M)
Then I thought – but C and G include debt servicing costs – the interest bill!
So, I backed up a little and wondered what the G would have been had there been no scamdemic (perpetrated on the American people by the Democratic Party and a rigged election).
So, here’s a table from a Trump budget looking forward to the 30 September 2021 sourced from here (page 3 of 22):
BUDGET-2021-BUD-26.pdf (govinfo.gov)
And compared that to the Resident’s budget for fiscal year ended 30 September 2024 from here: (page 141 oof 188)
Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 (whitehouse.gov)
Leaving aside the burying of the number’s way down in a 188-page pdf compared to the third page of just 22, check out the deficits projected by the Trump v the Biden White Houses.
Trump deficit projection for 2020, 2021 and 2022 were 1,083 billion, 966 billion and 920 billion.
Outturns for those three years were 3.1 trillion (v 1.086), 2.8 trillion (v 966 billion) and 1.4 trillion (v 920 billion).
7.3 trillion actual v 3.0 trillion projected in 2019 = 4.3 trillion extra deficits for those 3 fiscal years.
Over those three fiscal years, arguably, the vast bulk of the increase in the fiscal deficits were due to the scamdemic (plus the first impacts of the incoming (administration), We know all this spending was a scam perpetrated by bad actors. We know that at least 10% went directly to fraudsters as well.
So, how about 2023, 2024 and 2025 fiscal years.
Trump was projecting deficits of 746 billion, 552 billion and 527 billion for a total of 1.8 trillion.
Biden is expecting deficits of 1,694 billion, 1,859 billion and 1,671 billion for a total pf 5.2 trillion.
That’s an extra 3.4 trillion bucks over three fiscal years – call it an extra 1.1 trillion bucks a year in fiscal deficits. The scamdemic ended in May 2023 – 2024 and 2025 deficits should have no scamdemic impacts other than the ongoing scam.
Back to GDP. Trump was projecting GDP of 25.8 trillion for 2023. Biden numbers show 27.0 trillion – an extra 1.2 trillion. Trump 27.1 trillion for 2024, Biden 28.3 trillion – an extra 1.2 trillion.
Now, here’s some squirrely stuff.
From here:
Financial Report of the United States Government - Management (treasury.gov)
US federal debt on 30 September 2019 was 22.7 trillion. It now stands at 34.7 trillion.
That’s an increase of 12 trillion bucks in less than 5 years - call it an increase of 2.6 trillion a year for a little over 4.5 years. Can you see anywhere close to that number in the Resident’s budget? Smoke and mirrors, right? We all know that what you borrow does not increase your total debt! Adding the 2020, 2021 and 2022 budgets to the Residents numbers for 2023 and 2024 comes to what, 11 trillion? A trillion bucks s hardly chicken feed and it is NOT interest on federal debt – that is included in “Outlays”.
You can see the “big government” impact on receipts and outlays.
For the 2019 fiscal year, the government spent 4.4 trillion and took in 3.5 trillion.
For the 2024 fiscal year, the government is expected to spend 7 trillion and take in 5 trillion.
Receipts (taxes) up 1.5 trillion (+43%) spending up 2.6 trillion (+59%).
Federal spending on 2019 federal debt of 22.7 at, say, 2% = 454 billion, interest on 34.7 trillion at, say 4% = 1,388 billion = triple the 2019 cost.
This is the route to a banana republic. It is well trodden, and it is a feature not a bug of the Democratic party. Bama was just the same. The intention is to destroy what is left of the free market of ideas and rewards and turn the US int a one-party state, just like China.
Out of interest (pun intended), there is no chatter anywhere about the need for the Fed to ask the US Treasury for a large check to cover losses on its past debt monetization antics,
From here:
The Fed holds around 6.8 trillion bucks in all sorts of government and mortgage debt. Let’s assume it has a (modified) duration of 4 years and interest rates have gone up 3%. The loss on these securities since the Fed jacked up interest rates is = 6.8 trillion x 4 years x 3% = around 816 billion bucks. See if that is in the Residents budget. In past years, the p/l has been positive, and the Fed has written a check to the US Treasury. See that anywhere in past budgets for any POTUS?
Remember that increases in fiscal deficits count as an increase in GDP!!!
Let’s use that as a segue back t the Residents statement for 2025.
There are a lot of apparently positive things said.
Here’s one under “Lowers Costs for the American People”. In the paragraph commencing “Expands Access to Homeownership and Affordable Rent and Reduces Down Payments for First-Time and First-Generation Homebuyers.”
From here:
Historical Mortgage Rates: 1971 To The Present | Rocket Mortgage
“Rates declined throughout 2019. When January 2020 came around, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was about 3.7%. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. In response, the Fed dropped the federal funds rate to 0% – 0.25%, causing other short-term and long-term rates to drop.”
Those were the days! New home buyers seeking a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will now have to pay around 7.7% which, given the median US house price of around 420,000 bucks means the interest alone on a mortgage is over 32,000 bucks a year – and up some 16,800 bucks over the last 5 years.
Same goes for credit card, car finance ad all sorts of debt.
From here for credit card debt (the highest rates since 2007):
Historical Credit Card Interest Rates (1991 - 2023) (wallethub.com)
You might think that delinquency/charge off rates of around 4% compared to the interest rate charged of around 22% in these days of electronic transmission of data is price gouging – but well, maybe the banks can lend the money at close to mortgage rates!
Here’s some other blurb from here:
Household Debt and Credit Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)
“Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports increased by $112 billion during the fourth quarter of 2023 and stood at $12.25 trillion at the end of December.
Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) increased by $11 billion, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase after 2022Q1, and there is now $360 billion in aggregate outstanding balances.
Credit card balances, which are now at $1.13 trillion outstanding, increased by $50 billion (4.6%).
Auto loan balances increased by $12 billion, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2020Q2, and now stand at $1.61 trillion.
Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, grew by $25 billion.
Student loan balances were effectively flat, with a $2 billion increase and stand at $1.6 trillion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $89 billion.
17 trillion bucks of consumer debt. The cost of which is up at least 3% a year, meaning that consumer spending on interest has increased around half a trillion dollars.
All this increase in interest bills on consumer debt ADDS to the C component of GDP – giving a perception of economic growth.
It isn’t!
Ok, if you are still with me, good on you!
I will leave the I (Investment) component alone but will sign off with a quick note on the trade deficit. Many people, like me, believe that the (X-M) component of GDP is an accounting identity – all other things being equal – with the fiscal deficit.
The Resident squatter in the White House thinks that importing oil is a better solution than producing it from US oil fields – which are twice as big as those pf Saudi Arabia. This does not impact emissions – it just makes America poorer.
Here is a chart of the US trade deficit that could be in balance with the right policies, instead of those that continue to send the US into the abyss of a debt default in a few years (when the interest bill of Federal debt exceeds federal tax receipts).
United States Balance of Trade (tradingeconomics.com)
A smart country would not want to have to see a deficit – maybe a balance at worst.
Sending dollars every year to China, while it is the world’s largest polluter should be enraging the chicken littles in the “Climate Change” lobby. But they prefer to kill the whales, dolphins, sharks and fish off the costs of the US with their ugly windmills.
U.S. trade deficit with China 2023 | Statista
That’s enough for now! It’s beer o’clock!
Onwards!!!
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