ALBERTA FOR ALBERTANS! Independence referendum set for October 19th
maybe Alberta has too much mone, /assets and wealth for Ottawa to 'let go'?
From here;
(You can change the language to English via the drop down box on the splash page of the site).
‘Alberta has entered a historic chapter.
This week, organizers confirmed that the movement for an Alberta independence referendum has officially passed the required threshold of 177,000 verified signatures, clearing the final legal barrier for a vote set to take place on October 19th.
According to the organizers behind the petition, signatures continue to pour in even after the requirement was met — a sign of the momentum and frustration that have been building across the province.
From Brave AI;
‘Alberta’s population reached 5,040,871 in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest estimates from the Government of Canada. This marks a significant milestone, surpassing the 5 million resident threshold earlier in 2025, with the province recording a record surge of 202,000 people between January 2023 and January 2024.’
Alberta would join other countries with similar populations such as Demark, Finland, Norway and Slovakia each with its own health, education, defence and foreign policies.
‘Alberta’s economy is dominated by energy resources, specifically crude oil, natural gas, and coal, with the province holding the world’s third-largest crude oil reserves and the largest proven oil reserves outside Saudi Arabia in the Athabasca Oil Sands. While fossil fuels account for the vast majority of the natural resource economy, the province also possesses significant agricultural, forestry, and mineral resources.’
‘Energy: Alberta produces roughly 75% of Canada’s crude oil and natural gas, along with the majority of the country’s coal, making it the largest producer of conventional crude, synthetic crude, and gas products in Canada.
Agriculture: Approximately one-third of the land area is used for agriculture, with major crops including wheat, barley, canola, and dry peas, while beef cattle dominate livestock production.
Forestry: Forests cover more than half of the province’s surface, primarily consisting of aspen, white spruce, and pines used for lumber, paper, and pulp.
Minerals: Beyond energy, Alberta extracts salt, limestone, sulphur, sand, gravel, and dimension stone, with growing exploration potential for lithium, nickel, and vanadium critical for batteries.
Economic Impact and Transition
The natural resource sector contributed 33% to Alberta’s real GDP in 2018, with energy alone accounting for 96% of that sector’s total value. ’
‘Alberta’s fiscal position has significantly deteriorated, with the government projecting a $9.4 billion deficit for fiscal year 2026-27, following a revised $4.1 billion deficit for 2025-26. This trajectory results in a cumulative shortfall of nearly $24 billion across the three-year forecast horizon, driven primarily by softer oil prices and rising population-related costs.’
‘Key indicators of the current fiscal outlook include:
Net Debt to GDP: Expected to rise to 10.5% in FY 2026-27 and reach 13% by FY 2028-29, levels not seen outside of the pandemic era in 30 years.
Revenue Pressures: Total revenue for 2026-27 is forecast at $74.6 billion, a decrease of $800 million from previous forecasts, with non-renewable resource revenue estimated at $13.2 billion (18% of total revenue) due to falling oil prices.
Spending Growth: Total expenses are slated to rise by 5.6% in FY 2026-27, with healthcare and education spending increasing by 6% and 8% respectively to accommodate enrolment growth and utilization.
While the province maintains the lowest net-debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada relative to other provinces, the current budget departs from the commitment to return to balanced books within a three-year window under the Sustainable Fiscal Planning and Reporting Act.
The government has introduced targeted revenue measures, such as a 6% tax on rental vehicles effective in 2027 and adjustments to education property taxes, alongside spending restraint, but these are insufficient to close the gap within the current horizon.’
‘Alberta’s projected $9.4 billion fiscal deficit for 2026–27 stems primarily from a sharp drop in oil and gas royalty revenues combined with rapidly rising government spending that outpaces population and inflation.
‘Falling Oil Prices: The province expects oil prices to average just over $60 per barrel in the coming fiscal year, down from $74 in 2024–25, causing bitumen royalties to plummet by $7.5 billion compared to 2024–25 levels.
Spending Increases: Operating expenses are projected to exceed $70 billion, an increase of more than $5.5 billion over previous plans, driven by significant hikes in health and education spending that exceed the government’s own “fiscal anchor” limits.
Policy Shifts: The government has temporarily suspended its balanced-budget framework, which previously required a return to balance within three years, effectively accepting deficits through 2028–29 to maintain service levels despite volatile resource revenues.
While officials cite population growth and global economic uncertainty as contributing factors, analysts argue the deficit reflects deliberate policy choices to increase spending beyond sustainable levels rather than external shocks alone.’
Noe the ‘deliberate policy choices to increase spending beyond sustainable levels rather than external shocks alone’.
‘Alberta’s labor market has shown volatility in recent years, with rates fluctuating between 4.9% in July 2022 and peaks above 8% in late 2025 before stabilizing. Despite recent job creation in specific industries, youth unemployment remains a challenge, with Alberta historically holding the second-highest youth unemployment rate in Canada’.
‘Alberta recorded a $78.1 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2023, a decrease from the $107.0 billion surplus in 2022, while 2024 data indicates an even larger surplus of approximately $143 billion in net exports. The province’s exports totaled $171.6 billion in 2023, down 13.7% from the previous year, while imports rose 1.8% to $93.5 billion.
‘Key factors driving Alberta’s trade position include:
Dominance of Energy Exports: Crude petroleum oils alone accounted for $124.1 billion of exports in 2024 (67.8% of total), with the United States absorbing 88.5% of all provincial exports.
Economic Reliance: International merchandise trade represents 58.6% of Alberta’s GDP, with exports accounting for 37.9% of the provincial economy in 2023.
2024 Growth: Despite a slight dip in overall export value from 2023 to 2024 in some datasets, the trade surplus expanded by 6.6% year-over-year to $143 billion, driven by record resource revenues.
Services Trade: In contrast to the strong merchandise balance, Alberta ran a $10.0 billion deficit in services trade in 2023, with exports of $14.8 billion and imports of $24.7 billion.
Recent fiscal reports from June 2025 highlight that the province posted an unexpected $8.3 billion budget surplus, attributed to higher-than-expected resource revenues and corporate income taxes, providing a buffer against potential trade war-driven shortfalls.
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