Autism in the US – if the rate of Increase between 1995 and 2020 continues at 12%, one in ten Americans will have some form of ASD in 12 years and one in 5 in the next 24 years.
That’s the click bait. The numbers are, as aways, subject to Garbage in Garbage Out (GIGO) and, according to the CDC, Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) was unchanged between 2020 and 2023/4.
Here’s Brave AI’s extracted data:
“Autism Rates in the US
According to the available data, the annual rates of autism in the U.S. have increased significantly over the last 40 years. Here are some key points:
In 1995, rough estimates suggested that 1 in 500 children were likely to be diagnosed with autism.
By 2000, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began tracking prevalence rates through the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. At that time, the prevalence was around 6.7 out of every 1,000 children, or about 1 in 150.
In 2006, the prevalence was around 1 in 110 children.
By 2020, the prevalence had risen to 27.6 in 1,000 children, or 1 in 36 children.
In 2023, the CDC estimates that 1 in 36 children in the U.S. are diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD).”
Taking only the data between 1995 and 2020, we can construct this table:
Using the “Rule of 72, which holds that there is s doubling in the number by dividing 72 by the rate of increase, the number doubles every (72/12) = 6 years. The 27.8 number for 2020 doubles to 55.6 in six years and doubles again in another six years to 111.2 per thousand in 12 years.
O the face of it, the “no change” between 2020 and 2023, pours cold water on extrapolations of this sort – or to 2023 (and 2024) numbers are bogus!
2024 rates for the USA, from Brave AI:
“As of 2024, the autism rate in the United States is approximately 2.3% of all American children, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This translates to about 1 in 36 children being diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD).”
Artificial Intelligence” – AI – also suffers from GIGO – it is only as good as the sources data it references. It does not compose or verify sources and methods.
This lack of intelligence and quality was highlighted in a recent ICAN weekly Highwire podcast, where Del Bigtree pointed out the fraud surrounding the statistics for the polio vaccine. Prior to the roll-out, many conditions were classified as “polio”. After the roll-out, conditions, like Guillain Barre were removed from the polio designation into their own category and, voila, the number of polio cases was reduced, and the vaccine declared a success!
How many answers extracted by AI are generating bogus results via GIGO?
Anyway, back to autism rates in the US.
From here:
The ADULT male and female rates for the worst States:
A 2.4% ADULT prevalence rate equates to 1 in 42 but check out that 4% prevalence rate for Massachusetts adult men – one in 25!!!!
Compare that to the States with the lowest rates:
What about rates amongst kids over the last 25 years? This is crucial for understanding incidence rates and their emergence over time.
“Period Covered: 2020.
Description of System: The Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network is an active surveillance program that provides estimates of the prevalence of ASD among children aged 8 years.
In 2020, there were 11 ADDM Network sites across the United States (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin).
To ascertain ASD among children aged 8 years, ADDM Network staff review and abstract developmental evaluations and records from community medical and educational service providers.
A child met the case definition if their record documented 1) an ASD diagnostic statement in an evaluation, 2) a classification of ASD in special education, or 3) an ASD International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code.
Results: For 2020, across all 11 ADDM sites, ASD prevalence per 1,000 children aged 8 years ranged from 23.1 in Maryland to 44.9 in California.
The overall ASD prevalence was 27.6 per 1,000 (one in 36) children aged 8 years and was 3.8 times as prevalent among boys as among girls (43.0 versus 11.4).
Overall, ASD prevalence was lower among non-Hispanic White children (24.3) and children of two or more races (22.9) than among non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black), Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (A/PI) children (29.3, 31.6, and 33.4 respectively).
ASD prevalence among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) children (26.5) was similar to that of other racial and ethnic groups. ASD prevalence was associated with lower household income at three sites, with no association at the other sites.”
It is almost impossible to identify trends in the data for kids – maybe I am big dense, but I cannot easily find it – and there is little to no data for kids under 8.
A key question might b “are the monitoring sites in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin, sufficient to explain the differences in ADULT and children autism rates (above ad below 8 years of age) in those States with the highest and lowest ASD prevalence rates?
The highest prevalence States of Massachusetts, Virginia, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania are not surveillance sites.
Similarly, the lowest prevalence States of North Dakota, Florida, South Dakota, New Mexico and North Carolina are not surveillance sites.
If you don’t collect and analyse data, look for correlations amongst likely variables – and publish it in an easily accessible form – there is no chance of arriving at any valid analysis – don’t look, don’t diagnose or prove any cause and effect!
Onwards!
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Data. Age 9
https://open.substack.com/pub/petermcculloughmd/p/breaking-study-childhood-vaccination?r=pfs3y&utm_medium=ios
Very few had this in the seventies. It’s everywhere now. It’s in the water and food supply. Wake up!