China at peak BF7 pandemic now - pray for 99.9% recovery rate over a ten day period (0.1% fatality rate) prior to the Chinese New Year

I watched another YouTube video by Dr John Campbell here: (1) China, mass infections - YouTube and it got me thinking about ball-parking the possible track of the BF7 outbreak in China. Dr Campbell shows details of the duration of infections, hospitalizations and deaths in his video.

So I came up with this table. Now it is pretty rough and ready and is based on many volatile variables. Changing any of the variables varies the outcomes enormously.

My assumptions for key variables are:

·        The BF7 infection lasts 10 days

·        The recovery rate is 99.9%

·        The R0 (transmission rate) of the outbreak is 15 every ten days

·        The infection fatality rate = case fatality rate = same as the ‘flu = 0.1%

So here are the results of this (rough and ready) modelling.

With an R0 of 15 every ten days, it will take (slightly less than) 8 x ten day periods to infect the entire 1.4 billion Chinese population. An almost 80 day pandemic.

For illustration, I show a start day of 1 November 2022, as 8 x ten day R0 periods would mean the outbreak would essentially be over BEFORE the start of mass population movement for the Chinese New Year (Rabbit) on 22 January 2023. You can shift the start date back and forth to suit your own estimated start date. You can also change the R0 periodicity from 10 days to your choice and the R0 itself. This is my rough template. No doubt those with better qualifications in mathematics can come up with a sensitivity table!

China could be in the midst of the most severe part of its pandemic right now. If things work as per my template, infections will disappear almost entirely in the next ten days.

Fingers crossed!

Onwards!

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