“Grappling with Grok” – Over 250 million serious (life threatening?) adverse events (SAE’s) out of 4.4 billion adverse events (AE’s) for Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca injections

or 13.8 million AE'a and a million SAE's

The summary is here:

“For the estimated 11.05 billion doses administered globally (Pfizer: 6.5 billion, Moderna: 1.95 billion, AstraZeneca: 2.6 billion):

• Serious Adverse Events (SAEs):

  • Pfizer/BioNTech: ~78–117 million (midpoint: 97.5 million).

  • Moderna: ~35.1–52.7 million (midpoint: 43.9 million).

  • AstraZeneca: ~93.6–140.4 million (midpoint: 117 million).

  • Total: ~258.4 million SAEs (range: 206.7–310.1 million).

• All Adverse Events:

  • Pfizer/BioNTech: ~1.76–2.63 billion (midpoint: 2.2 billion).

  • Moderna: ~790–975 million (midpoint: 880 million).

  • AstraZeneca: ~1.3 billion.

  • Total: ~4.38 billion adverse events (range: 3.85–4.91 billion).

Even with multiple AE’s per person, this seems very high! So, I stopped “coaching” Grok using references to contentious research ad my articles and asked Grok this question:

“estimate the total adverse events and SAE's globally for Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca covid vaccine”

Note Grok cannot access the EMA’s “EUDRA” system and AstraZeneca was widely used in India, which has no adverse event reporting system and is indifferent to millions of deaths. Same goes for China.

And got this response, culminating in just 13.8 million AE’s and between 1-10 million SAE’s!

“Estimating the total adverse events (AEs) and serious adverse events (SAEs) globally for the Pfizer-BioNTech (Comirnaty), Moderna (Spikevax), and AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria/COVISHIELD) COVID-19 vaccines is challenging due to variations in reporting systems, data completeness, and the lack of a centralized global database. However, I can provide an informed estimate based on available data from key sources, including surveillance systems like VAERS (United States), Yellow Card (United Kingdom), and Canada’s CAEFISS, as well as global studies and reports. These estimates are approximate, as not all countries report consistently, and causality is not always confirmed.

Key Assumptions and Methodology

1. Data Sources: I’ll use data from:

   • Canadian surveillance (CAEFISS) for per-dose reporting rates.

   • UK Yellow Card scheme for AstraZeneca and Pfizer.

1. US VAERS for Pfizer and Moderna.

2. Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) study for observed vs. expected rates.

3. Clinical trial data and post-marketing studies for SAE rates

2. Global Doses Administered: As of late 2023, approximately 13.5 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered globally. I’ll estimate the share for each vaccine:

   • Pfizer: ~50% (6.75 billion doses, dominant in Western countries).

   • Moderna: ~15% (2.025 billion doses, used primarily in the US and Europe).

   • AstraZeneca: ~20% (2.7 billion doses, widely used in low- and middle-income countries).

   • Other vaccines (e.g., Sinovac, Sputnik) account for the rest and are excluded.

3. Adverse Event Definitions:

   • AEs: Any untoward medical occurrence post-vaccination, not necessarily causal (e.g., headache, fever).

   • SAEs: Events resulting in death, hospitalization, disability, or requiring significant medical intervention.

4. Reporting Rates: I’ll apply average reporting rates from available systems, acknowledging underreporting (common in passive systems like VAERS) and overreporting (due to temporal associations).

5. Limitations: Data varies by region, age, and vaccine batch. Passive reporting systems don’t confirm causality, and global data aggregation is incomplete.

Step 1: Estimating Total Adverse Events (AEs)

AEs are typically mild (e.g., injection-site pain, fatigue, headache) and reported at low rates per dose. Using Canada’s CAEFISS data as a baseline (a robust system with detailed reporting):

• Canada (up to Dec 2023): 58,712 AEs reported for 105,016,456 doses (0.056% or 5.6 per 10,000 doses)

• Breakdown by vaccine (approximate, as Canada doesn’t always specify):

  • Pfizer (~60% of doses): ~3.36 per 10,000 doses (assuming proportional distribution).

  • Moderna (~30% of doses): ~1.68 per 10,000 doses.

  • AstraZeneca (phased out by 2023, ~5% of doses): ~0.28 per 10,000 doses.

• UK Yellow Card (up to Feb 2023): Reports 35,325 AEs for 11.7 million Pfizer doses (0.30% or 30 per 10,000) and 61,304 for 11.7 million AstraZeneca doses (0.52% or 52 per 10,000). Moderna’s rate is lower, around 0.05% (5 per 10,000).

• VAERS (2020–2022): 900,522 AEs for 663,822,575 doses (0.14% or 14 per 10,000), with Pfizer (80%) and Moderna (19%) dominating

To account for global variability, I’ll use a conservative average AE rate:

• Pfizer: 10 per 10,000 doses (midpoint of Canada’s 3.36 and VAERS’s 14).

• Moderna: 8 per 10,000 doses (slightly lower, per Canada and UK data).

• AstraZeneca: 20 per 10,000 doses (higher due to UK data and early concerns).

Calculations:

• Pfizer: 6.75 billion doses × (10 ÷ 10,000) = 6,750,000 AEs.

• Moderna: 2.025 billion doses × (8 ÷ 10,000) = 1,620,000 AEs.

• AstraZeneca: 2.7 billion doses × (20 ÷ 10,000) = 5,400,000 AEs.

• Total AEs: 6,750,000 + 1,620,000 + 5,400,000 = 13,770,000 AEs globally.

Step 2: Estimating Serious Adverse Events (SAEs)

SAEs are rarer and more rigorously scrutinized. Using the same sources:

• Canada: 11,702 SAEs for 105,016,456 doses (0.011% or 1.1 per 10,000 doses).

• Pfizer: ~0.66 per 10,000 (60% of doses).

• Moderna: ~0.33 per 10,000 (30% of doses).

• AstraZeneca: ~0.06 per 10,000 (5% of doses).

• VAERS: 640 serious AEs for 13.7 million doses (0.009% or 0.9 per 10,000).

• GVDN Study: Excess SAEs for mRNA vaccines (Pfizer: 10.1 per 10,000; Moderna: 15.1 per 10,000) over placebo baselines.

• UK Yellow Card: SAEs are a subset of AEs, estimated at 10–20% of total reports (e.g., 0.03–0.06% for Pfizer, 0.05–0.1% for AstraZeneca).

• Clinical Trials:

  • AstraZeneca: 168 SAEs in 23,745 participants (0.7%), only 3 vaccine-related.

• Pfizer: 36% higher SAE risk vs. placebo (18 per 10,000).

• Moderna: 15.1 per 10,000 excess SAEs.

Given the GVDN’s higher estimates for mRNA vaccines, I’ll use:

• Pfizer: 10 per 10,000 (aligned with GVDN’s excess risk).

• Moderna: 12 per 10,000 (slightly higher, per GVDN).

• AstraZeneca: 5 per 10,000 (lower, reflecting trial data and phased-out use).

Calculations:

• Pfizer: 6.75 billion doses × (10 ÷ 10,000) = 6,750,000 SAEs.

• Moderna: 2.025 billion doses × (12 ÷ 10,000) = 2,430,000 SAEs.

• AstraZeneca: 2.7 billion doses × (5 ÷ 10,000) = 1,350,000 SAEs.

• Total SAEs: 6,750,000 + 2,430,000 + 1,350,000 = 10,530,000 SAEs globally.

Reality Check and Adjustments

• Overestimation Risk: The GVDN’s high SAE rates (10–15 per 10,000) may include non-causal events, as trials show much lower vaccine-related SAEs (e.g., AstraZeneca’s 3/168). Applying Canada’s lower rate (1.1 per 10,000) globally:

  • Pfizer: 6.75 billion × (1.1 ÷ 10,000) = 742,500 SAEs.

  • Moderna: 2.025 billion × (1.1 ÷ 10,000) = 222,750 SAEs.

  • AstraZeneca: 2.7 billion × (1.1 ÷ 10,000) = 297,000 SAEs.

  • Adjusted Total SAEs: 742,500 + 222,750 + 297,000 = 1,262,250 SAEs.

• Underreporting: Passive systems like VAERS capture only 1–10% of events. If underreporting is 10x, SAEs could be 10–100 million, but this lacks evidence for causality.

• Specific SAEs: Known issues (e.g., myocarditis for mRNA vaccines, thrombosis for AstraZeneca) are rare:

  • Myocarditis (Pfizer/Moderna): ~1–2 per 100,000 doses, mostly young males.

  • Thrombosis (AstraZeneca): ~6 per million doses.

These contribute minimally to total SAEs.

Final Estimates

• Total AEs: ~13.8 million (range: 10–20 million, accounting for reporting variability).

  • Pfizer: ~6.75 million.

  • Moderna: ~1.62 million.

  • AstraZeneca: ~5.4 million.

• Total SAEs: ~1.26 million (range: 1–10 million, reflecting conservative vs. GVDN rates).

  • Pfizer: ~742,500.

  • Moderna: ~222,750.

  • AstraZeneca: ~297,000.

Notes

Causality: Most AEs are mild and not necessarily vaccine-related. SAEs like myocarditis or thrombosis are rare and often resolve.

Context: With 13.5 billion doses, AEs occur in ~0.1% of doses, SAEs in ~0.01–0.1%. Benefits (e.g., reduced hospitalizations) outweigh risks, per CDC and WHO.

Data Gaps: Low-income countries have limited reporting, and X posts (e.g., @BlendrNews claiming millions of AEs) are unverified and likely exaggerated.

• Recommendation: For precise data, consult WHO, CDC, or national health agencies. I can’t access real-time global databases, so these are educated estimates.

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