Larger Countries with the highest active reported C19 cases per million (is the pandemic over in China?)

China should have almost full recovered from its recent BF7 outbreak by now, just in time for the New Year of the Rabbit next Sunday, 22 January 2023 (Legend has it the Rabbit was proud—arrogant even—of its speed).

The end of the pandemic in China depends on a lot of variables panning out. The end of te pandemic assumies an R0 of 15 every ten days, since the outbreak a few months ago, an infection period of those ten days and a 99.9% recovery rate. The peak was a week or so ago (a billion infections and around 130,000 deaths) if this holds true. Of course, we don’t have reliable data. Nor do we know how many were infected for longer than ten days. It is all a bit of a stab (injection) in the dark.

Thoughts and prayers that the worst is over for the good people of China.

The number of those deemed “active” and “recoveries” is an interesting (if misdiagnosed) statistic.

Enquiring minds want to know what the “turnover” of those reported as “active” actually is. Does a “case” typically last three weeks (one week longer than the BF7 “case” in China) is the number of “active cases” now represent 100% new “active cases” compared to three weeks ago - with any still “active” = “long covid” cases? We know that long covid cases amongst the young in the UK had a 100% turnover number, so not very long at all!

For interest’s sake, here is a ranked order of the 25 countries with the highest “active” cases per million (using data from here and here).

Japan and Hong Kong have almost 8% of their countries defined as a case – a little more than one in 12 people. There is a big drop to Poland next at a little under 2.5% - one in 40, then other Asian tigers feature again.

Poor old Austrians must be well and truly fed up with some oink shoving swabs up their noses and down their throats.

Again, out of interest, here are some smaller nations – mostly isolated and island nations – that also have significantly high rates of “active cases” that would have made the top 25 of larger countries included in the above table.

Onwards!

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