Russia has six months to complete its “special military operation” in Ukraine, before – barring a nuclear holocaust – NATO will match it in “artillery and drone” warfare capacity
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With news of the clapping seals in the House approving more billions in lethal aid to Ukraine, the French sending in an army of “instructors”, the Spanish sending Leopard tanks, the Dutch approving more military aid, the Polish scouring the planet for artillery shells (and the outgoing UK Tory government proposing national service for 18 year olds), here is some news on how NATO is restoring its rapidly declining inventory of weaponry.
Let’s leave aside the conjecture that NATO forces have been so severely depleted that should Russia defeat Ukraine in a few months it could conceivably dominate Europe militarily, and also discount a nuclear holocaust.
The Iranian attack on Israel a few weeks ago highlighted the shift in modern warfare to drones and missile attacks that rendered Israel’s “Iron Dome” ineffective in the face of mass attacks of drones with trailing ICBM’s. Russia has traditionally placed heavy emphasis on the use of artillery I its military operations. Hand to hand combat still exists, but unmanned “PlayStation” robots increasingly dominate success or failure.
So does the costs of production of ordinance and technology.
There is precious little reporting of Russian dominance (if any) of Ukrainian air space, but we have this:
“Vladimir Putin’s forces are believed to be gathering some 56 miles northwest of Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region.
Belgium has pledged to send more than two dozen F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine as part of a near €1 billion (£832 million) military support package.
The aid was announced as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Brussels for discussions with the prime minister, Alexander De Croo.”
Zelensky has been quite the “Baghdad Bob” in the last few days.
An Urgent Matter of Drones: Lessons for NATO from Ukraine - CEPA
“2 days ago, · Zelensky stated in an interview published on May 25 that Russian forces have suffered an eight-to-one casualty ratio in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the past two weeks,”
Zelensky got a pledge for the Spanish Leopard tanks after a trip to Madrid last week.
Some background on the supply of artillery shells.
From here:
“The figures, produced by the management consulting firm Bain & Company, underline a major challenge faced by the Ukrainian armed forces as they rely on supplies of ammunition from the United States and Europe to battle Russia's full-scale invasion.”
More here:
Media reports NATO nations paying four times more than Russia for shells (menafn.com)
“Moreover, the study reveals a striking difference in production costs between Russian and NATO artillery shells. While the average production cost of a Russian 152mm shell is estimated at USD1,000, NATO's 155mm rounds are priced at approximately USD4,000 each. This substantial cost differential poses a strategic challenge for NATO states, as it significantly impacts their ability to match Russia's production capacity while maintaining cost-effectiveness.”
But.
“In response to the growing disparity, both the United States and the European Union have announced plans to ramp up their artillery shell production capabilities. The Pentagon aims to significantly increase its output of 155mm rounds from 28,000 to 100,000 per month by the end of 2025, while the European Union has set a target of reaching a production capacity of two million shells per year within the same timeframe.”
So, NATO (EU plus US) will be producing over 3 million shells in 18 months. Probably a million in shells a year in six months’ time.
“Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defence production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.”
Of course, Russia could double its production of artillery shells over the same time frame, but still…
As for drones:
Russia to produce over 32,000 drones each year by 2030, TASS reports | Reuters
“Jan 6 (Reuters) - Russia plans to produce more than 32,000 drones each year by 2030 and for domestic producers to account for 70% of the market, the TASS news agency cited First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov as saying on Saturday.
Drones have been widely used by Moscow and Kyiv since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and both sides are sharply increasing military production as the war drags on.
"The annual production volume of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - excluding educational UAVs - is planned at 32,500 units," Belousov told TASS. "This is almost three times higher than current production volumes.”
My guess is that, either with or without Iran’s help, Ukraine battlefield deployment is already twice that number.
Here’s a wrinkle:
NATO - News: NATO tests counter-drone technologies during exercise , 22-Sep.-2023
“From 12 to 22 September 2023, over 300 participants from 15 Allied and three partner nations, the European Union and the private sector gathered in the Netherlands to increase their ability to counter potential threats posed by the malign use of small drones.”
NATO’s Counter Unmanned Aircraft System Technical Interoperability Exercise (C-UAS TIE23) brought together military, scientific and industry specialists to test high-tech commercial solutions used to detect, identify, and neutralise drones.
Some 70 systems and technologies including sensors, effectors and jammers were tested live. The aim was to ensure that these high-tech solutions can connect instantly and operate together seamlessly.”
NATO and Ukraine do not publicize the number of drones they have operating in Ukraine. I guesstimate around the same ratio as the artillery shells between the two sides – maybe a quarter of those that Russia uses.
Well, NATO capabilities are being cranked up. Ukraine has many drones,
Here is a report for those interested in a deep dive on drones:
An Urgent Matter of Drones: Lessons for NATO from Ukraine - CEPA
Putting all this together, I would not be surprised that Russia is watching all this and this summer will see a major offensive to either take over all of Ukraine, force NATO to the negotiating table and establish a 10 mile wide de-militarized zone along existing front lines, or Russia will be facing defeat in Ukraine in one years’ time.
What then? Will NATO invade Russia to prevent the threat of a repeat?
One thing is for sure. The only people that want this war to continue are a few dozen politicians and another few dozen CEOs of arms manufacturers in the West.
Around a billion civilians across the globe do not want to see the flower of Ukrainian manhood obliterated and a significant portion of Russia’s – let aloe an increase in the prospect of the destruction of the planet from a nuclear war.
Just think how things would look if China chose this moment to invade Taiwan or Iran chose to escalate attacks on Israel should it discover that Israel shot down the Ayatollah’s helicopter.
Onwards!!!
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