Some background notes on the integration of renewable energy with exisiting (e,g, fossil fuel”) energy. Is this the reason there is no futures market for wind and solar?!?
Note that the entire debate raging about renewable energy centres around the production and use of electricity – no other “energy” source is in the “Overton Window” – not even chicken pellets as a source of energy – only electricity as the “energy” for heating, lighting and transportation etc.
There have been a few articles that have reported n NEGATIVE and FREE electricity prices in Germany. Yippee! You would think, right?
Here’s a couple of headlines from 2018 and this year:
The causes and effects of negative power prices | Clean Energy Wire
Here’s Brave’s explanation:
“Key Factors Contributing to Negative Prices
1. Inflexible generation: Some generators, such as nuclear or CCGTs, cannot quickly adjust to negative prices due to minimum stable generation levels and additional start-up costs.
2. Peak renewable energy production: Solar and wind energy output exceeds demand during periods of low electricity consumption, leading to oversupply and negative prices.
3. Low demand: Reduced industrial production on weekends and holidays decreases electricity demand, further driving wholesale price reductions.”
It provided this “rosy” outlook – “Experts predict that negative pricing will largely be solved by 2030 as Europe builds more batteries and installs more electrolysers for hydrogen production. In the meantime, the market will continue to adapt, with storage deployment and innovative solutions emerging to address this temporary issue.”
Here’s some stuff on battery storage from Brave:
“The duration of electricity storage in batteries depends on various factors, including battery chemistry, usage patterns, and maintenance. Here are some general insights:
· Lithium-ion batteries: Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, commonly used in portable electronics and electric vehicles, have a limited lifespan and will gradually lose their capacity over time. Shelf life can range from 2 to 4 years for batteries that do not run through complete charge cycles. For batteries that are regularly cycled, the lifespan is typically shorter.
· Utility-scale batteries: Large-scale batteries used for grid-scale energy storage can have durations ranging from 4 hours to 8 hours or more, depending on their design and usage. These batteries are typically cycled once per day, storing electricity during periods of low demand and releasing it during peak hours.
· Long-duration energy storage: For applications requiring extended storage periods, such as 20-30 years, commercially unproven technologies are being explored. These long-duration storage solutions aim to provide reliable and cost-effective energy storage for the future, but accurate cost estimates are currently lacking.
These would be the same experts that have behaved like rocks that live in a box marked “DUMB” along with politicians, regulators and the “Gretas”, “AOC;s” and the “UN” - or - who have behaved like children who are fed sugar, given scissors and told to whirl like dervishes whilst running at full speed – who destroy the lives and prosperity of the entire planet whilst borrowing globs of unpayable debt and raising taxes that result in poverty, disease and censorship of taxpayers..
So, what Germany had was too much supply and insufficient demand.
Why haven’t entrepreneurs bought up the excess? Well, existing technology in battery storage only lasts a few hours, so it’s akin to delivering unrefrigerated prawns to a town that already has all the prawns it needs in fridges.
It would appear that because the “renewable” energy is so unreliable (variable) that other sources of electricity have to kept of “stand=by” to fill the gaps from unreliable renewable energy. I thought that Germany lost access to all that cheap Russian natural gas and oil – and had shut down its nuclear? It must be that Germany entered into forward contracts with countries like France (for nuclear) and Norway (for gas and oil) – or something like that.
From Brave “According to one snippet, “Average retail prices fell to €6.24 ($6.70)/MWh on the German electricity spot market in April, largely due to renewables covering about 70% of the network load.” Additionally, another snippet mentioned that there were 50 hours of negative electricity prices on the spot market in April, with values reaching more than -€0.05/MWh at times.”
Just like banks, electricity suppliers could give two hoots about price levels – they always charge a margin around these price levels – in this case probably over 6 bucks for each kWh. Brave “goes dark” on German household electricity prices past April 2024.
Lots of complex factors – Germany also has its own power stations. The point is that whilst hydrocarbon (fossil fuel) power stations have “minimum operational loads”, “renewables” do not. So, hydrocarbon power has to be “always on” at some minimum level, regardless of whether renewables coincidentally are chucking out a lot of electricity.
Lots of attention is paid to MAXIMUM output.
https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity
But, more interestingly, here is a paper on energy planning and competition to supply the grid with minimum loads from different energy sources (from April 2018):
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421518300338
Here’s a few snippets:
“One of the significant limitations of solar and wind deployment is declining value caused by the limited correlation of renewable energy supply and electricity demand as well as limited flexibility of the power system.”
“… the challenges of integrating large amounts of variable generation (VG) wind and solar resources on the bulk power system have converged on a specific subset of issues. One major concern is the economic limit to deployment that results from declining value of renewable generators as a function of penetration, which results in an “economic carrying capacity” of the power system (Cochran et al., 2015). “
“The constraint imposed by minimum generation levels from conventional generators is and will continue to be a critical factor for VG integration. While it is part of the more general issue of “grid flexibility,” this specific issue has a set of drivers that include:
· The overall ramp range of thermal generators, their minimum up and down times, and start-up costs
· The need for process heat from combined heat and power (CHP) plants which requires them to generate electricity
· Minimum flow limits on hydro units.
“In this work, we examine the drivers behind minimum generation levels, and we examine how these levels may be determined. “
“… evaluate grid integration of solar and wind energy has demonstrated the feasibility of even greater contributions from VG.”
No mention of price of course – or the destruction of natural habitats, wiping out endangered species, and other environmental impacts from the deployment of renewable energy generators and its impact on the “view scape” – the paper looks like that wasn’t an issue so could be viewed through “green-tinted” glasses!
Which looks like a need to be able to shut down and start up hydrocarbon and other fuels to accommodate renewable energy booms and busts – rather than ignoring renewables because they cause booms and busts – renewable energy feast and famine!
Of course, hydrocarbons currently purchase hydrocarbons long int the future in order to secure reliable supplies, based in estimates of demand.
I don’t see a futures market for mWh of wind or solar power electricity generation!
Here’s some stuff on GE’s latest gas turbines:
https://www.gevernova.com/gas-power/products/gas-turbines/7e
With Brave’s narrative:
· “Multi-fuel combustion system options: The latest GE gas turbines, such as the 7E series, can accommodate a full range of fuel alternatives, including state-of-the-art fuel handling equipment.
· Advanced gas path features: These turbines incorporate advanced gas path designs to deliver better efficiency and lower emissions compared to other technologies in their class.
· Fast start-up capabilities: The 7E series gas turbines can deliver 100% load in 10 minutes, making them suitable for rapid response power generation applications.
· Upgradeable designs: GE’s 7E Series gas turbines can be upgraded to further improve performance and efficiency, ensuring a long-term investment for customers.
· High-performance capabilities: GE Vernova’s 6F gas turbine offers superior performance, reliability, and flexibility typically associated with larger power plants, making it suitable for demanding applications.
· Evolutionary design: GE’s modern gas turbine model portfolio has evolved over the past 80 years, with notable advancements in designs such as the GT13E2, which features a higher turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and increased compressor ratio compared to its predecessor.
Onwards!!!
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Already 20 years ago Germany had to pay metal refiners to run arc furnaces on windy days. The nuclear and coal can’t change output fast enough. So if you turn those down when it’s windy then later when the wind dies down you have a shortage as you wait to ramp up. The arc furnaces ate electrodes at a high rate. Very costly.
Renewable Portfolio Standards.
https://www.ncsl.org/energy/state-renewable-portfolio-standards-and-goals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_portfolio_standard#United_States
In the early 2000's I worked in state legislative public policy. For a more conservative market-oriented approach pushing back on the fanciful extreme policies of the radical command economy types. I became familiar with RPS and other industry terms at the time. We cautioned that very aggressive standards being pushed would be impossible to implement on the time tables being demanded, and would be prohibitively expensive.
The extreme enviro's would have none of it. They believed that if they ordered it then it would be so. And talk of high costs were dismissed, would come out of the "excessive profits" energy providers were making.
We were right. They've not hit their own standards. And energy costs have gone through the roof. But instead of denying the cost, saying the energy providers are greedy now they say it's necessary, and that consumers themselves are greedy, need to cut back.
This model applies to ALL progressive anti-market solutions across the entire economy. Ignore the costs, blame the greedy corporations for as long as they can, when forced to admit the excessive costs and failures to achieve outcomes assert it's worth it, and the public must make sacrifices, not the corporations.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.