Some more information on BF7 in China, which with an R0 of around 15, should sweep through the cities in the next week or so

Remember the origin of the SARS-COV2 virus that causes C19 disease was in China. Maybe it’s a signpost (probably not) maybe it’s a forecast. We need to keep an eye on developments to see if there is a new variant forced by the interaction with the “whole inactivated” SInoVac vaccine - or whether the current R0 of up to 18.6 (!!!!) is reduced by the SinoVac intervention.

What happens in China could stay in China (unlike the original Wuhan virus) so it does not mean that the US, UK and EU will follow what is occurring in China, (or vice versa).

Here is a link to a video released yesterday 15 December 2022 by Dr John Campbell

The variant about to explode across the Middle Kingdom is BF7 (Actually, BA.5.2.1.7)

Referenced in the video is Dr Li Tongzeng, a medical expert at Beijing's Xiaotangshan Hospital cited in a Global Times article dated 28 November 2022 and a China Daily article of 29 November 2022 here:

Q&A: Beijing's latest COVID-19 outbreak - Chinadaily.com.cn

Some details on the BF7 (B.5.2.1.7) Omicron Outbreak About to Infect 1.4 billion Chinese people ahead of their New Year of the Rabbit on January 2023.

“The Omicron BF.7 was from outside Beijing, and is different to other sub-variants circulating in other parts of China. Compared with the BA.1, BA.2 and BA.5 variants detected previously, Omicron BF.7 has more immune escape capability, a shorter incubation period and faster transmission rate, said.”

BF7 represents 5% of SARS-COV2 variants of concern estimated to be circulating in the US, BQ.1 (41%) and BQ.1.1 (22%) total 74%.

Here’s a take on BF.7 from Health Site News on 12 October 2022

From the Asia Times dated 14 December 2022.

“BF.7 has been detected in several other countries around the world including India, the US, the UK. and several European countries such as Belgium, Germany, France and Denmark.”

Bullet points from a Chinese virologist, Dr Li as quoted in China Daily on 29 November 2022, who is dealing with patients.

• Lower immunity, R0 (how many other people does an infected person infect) – original “wild” strain = 2.4, Delta around 6, “Old” Omicron 5, BF7 – up to 18.6 – each infected person infects 18.6 others (unmitigated by any interventions). By way of illustration, an R0 of 15 would infect all of China in just over a week, maybe all of the US a day sooner. However, note that BF7 has been present for a while in the US and it is not replacing BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 (I have no source for variants of concern circulating in China).

• Shorter incubation – “People begin viral shedding one day after contracting an Omicron subvariant. The second-generation cases may appear within two or three days.”

• Recovery time – “The time for infected people to turn negative is still about seven to 10 days.”

• Symptoms – “Major symptoms of the Omicron variant BF.7 include fever, coughing, sore throat and decreased sense of smell and taste. A small number of people may suffer from diarrhea and vomiting.”

Fingers crossed things don’t go postal!