Some notes on the underwater eruption in January 2022 that rivalled Krakatoa which caused a rise in global temperatures over all of 2022 – to last five years – ignored by the UN IPCC models and MSM

Here are some background notes on the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022.

My guess is that any increases in temperatures measured by accurate temperature devices (not those positioned next to heat traps at ground level) are likely due to Hunga Tonga. My (pretty useless!) ball-park guesstimate? A 1 degree C increase in average global temperatures in 2022, with maybe another half degree over the next four years.

It would be great if those on either side of the global warming debate could at least show the impact of the water vapour in the stratosphere on global temperatures, whether it will return to the earth, in what form, where and over what period. Maybe it will settle over the poles and expand ice sheets or maybe it will bringheavier monsoons or greater flooding in the Amazon or the continents.

Lots of people getting paid HUGE sums of money in government agencies to do this sort of work as well as the UN IPCC. So, do us all a favour and give us the benefit of your infinite wisdom. I am pretty sure NGO’s and ignored experts in the prvate sector will have a pop.

Here’s an initial reaction from two days after the eruption with links to lots of videos and images  taken from here:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haa'pai eruption likely ranked world's biggest in 30 years (9news.com.au)

“Similar to seismologists who use a Richter scale to measure earthquakes, volcanologists have a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) to gauge of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions.

 "This would be up there at around probably a five or six," Professor Arculus said. "So it's pretty big. "On a scale of bangs, it's up there with Krakatoa." The maximum VEI is 8, which humans have never witnessed.”

A comparison with other recent VEI values below: (With an estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6,^[2] the eruption was equivalent to 200 megatons of TNT (840 PJ)—about 13,000 times the nuclear yield of the Little Boy bomb (13 to 16 kt) that devastated Hiroshima, Japan,)

Other headlines from 2022:

As big as it gets: Hunga volcano comparable to Krakatoa | Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (llnl.gov)

“The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga volcano in Tonga was the largest volcanic eruption in the 21st century, and the largest recorded since the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.”

In depth: Surprising tsunamis caused by explosive eruption in Tonga | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)

“The first Lamb waves to radiate away from the eruption traveled about 710 mph, similar to the speed of Lamb waves produced during the 1883 Krakatau eruption. Like those 1883 waves, the Lamb waves triggered by the recent eruption in Tonga surrounded the globe and eventually circled it three-and-a-half times.”

An Underwater Volcano Birthed a Terrifying 90-Meter-Tall Tsunami Wave Earlier This Year - IGN

“On January 15th, 2022, a submerged volcano erupted off the coast of Tonga, creating a terrifying tsunami wave roughly the height of the Statue of Liberty, according to the results of a new study published in the journal, Ocean Engineering.”

A full and detailed scientific paper is here published in December 2022:

Global perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption | Communications Earth & Environment (nature.com)

From the Abstract:

“.. a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km.”

“.. an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades.”

“.. the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.”

That scientific paper was discussed in the article below:

Hunga Tonga eruption: the most remarkable climatic event in the last three decades | Earth and Environmental Sciences Community (nature.com)

“The study shows that during the eruption, the vaporized seawater and sulfur contained in the volcano’s magmatic chamber has been spewed high into the atmosphere and reached unprecedented altitude of 58 km. The mass of injected water is estimated at 146±5 Mt, which - given the ascent rate of the eruptive column of 40 m/s - translates into the flux of water comparable with the discharge of Amazon river. In about four hours, the volcanic cloud grew to the size of Germany and, carried by strong winds in the stratosphere, circumnavigated the Earth in only one week.”

“The various observations used in this study pave the way to uncovering the climate-altering capacity of this extraordinary volcanic event, which, unlike the other major eruptions, is expected to warm the surface climate due to greenhouse effect of the stratosphere hydration.”

What one might call a “significant event”!!!!

So how did the experts on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) – not a headline here AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 — IPCC – but of course the IPCC is hard to penetrate at the best of times. Here’s a view of the absence of volcanology in the UN IPCC climate models from an expert.

Slip to the 7 minute mark here – the whole 80 minute video is well worth a watch.

Willie Soon: Global warming: Mostly human-caused or natural? | Tom Nelson Podcast #79 - YouTube

No-one bothers to measure the water vapour etc emitting “one single forcing”. What about volcanology?

Let’s skip tp an analysis of the latest UN IPCC “stuff” from here from an expert,:

What The IPCC Actually Says About Extreme Weather | Principia Scientific Intl. (principia-scientific.com)

“When you read the below you will realize that the difference between what you see in the news (including statements from leading scientists) and what the IPCC has concluded could not be more different.”

So it’s not bad enough that a layman finds it hard to crach the UN IPCC code – although “But for those who want to know what research actually says on the relationship between extreme weather and climate change, that information is readily available.”

Bottom line from the above article:

“The IPCC has concluded that a signal of ‘climate change’ has not yet emerged beyond natural variability for the following phenomena:

• River floods

• Heavy precipitation and pluvial floods

• Landslides

• Drought (all types)

• Severe wind storms

• Tropical cyclones

• Sand and dust storms

• Heavy snowfall and ice storms

• Hail

• Snow avalanche

• Coastal flooding

• Marine heat waves

To repeat “a signal of ‘climate change’ has not yet emerged “ for any of these factors. You will note the absence of any reference to Hunga Tonga.

The UN IPCC AR6 report does forecast higher confidence for tropical regions.

“In tropical regions, wherever observed changes can be established with statistical significance, and in most mid-latitude regions, there is high confidence that hot and cold extremes have emerged in the historical period, but only medium confidence elsewhere.

“Clearly, with the exception perhaps of only extreme heat, the IPCC is badly out of step with today’s apocalyptic zeitgeist.

Maybe that is why no one mentions what the IPCC actually says about extreme events.”

Lots of notes here for the curious to investigate further.

Onwards

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