The battle for the skies over Ukraine is about to commence – either Russia or NATO will be humiliated and a key factor for the outcome of the war for Ukraine will be determined

From here:

F-16 fighters are coming to Ukraine soon (usatoday.com)

“Ukraine will soon begin receiving U.S.-made F-16 Fighting Falcon jets from Western allies to use in the war against Russia, a move designed to bolster Ukrainian defenses and challenge Russian air superiority.”

Around 100 F-16’s of varying vintage are due in Ukraine in the next week, of which:

“The Netherlands will begin delivering 24 jets to Ukraine “without delay,” Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp said during a visit to Kyiv on July 6. Other nations will send F-16s as well. Norway will give 22 jets and Denmark and Belgium will transfer an unspecified number of the aircraft.

The F-16’s from the Netherlands represents almost a quarter of the 107 in its air force, Norway had 57, but these were phased out in favour of F-35’s in December 2021 (32 were sold to Romania – 3 of which arrived a few weeks ago). Belgium has pledged 30 out of its stock of 45. Poland has pledged some of its 58 F-16’s, maybe Romania has as well. The USAF and UK’s RAF have pledged none, preferring to send sophisticated “air to air” and “air to ground “missiles instead.

“The F-16 is considered a fourth-generation fighter jet, the modern standard in combat aircraft, according to militaryfactory.com.”

Here is a link to another article around the US F-16’s here:

F-16s head to Ukraine to begin flights this summer - POLITICO

“The U.S., Denmark and the Netherlands announced during the NATO Summit in Washington on Wednesday that the two latter countries had sent over the aircraft, though they did not say how many. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also mentioned the news during a public forum.”

Here is one take on how dogfights – if such things even happen these days of distance killing – might fare:

Russia's Su-57 Felon vs. F-16 Fighters in Ukraine War: Who Wins? | The National Interest

“The Felon sports air-to-surface missiles in addition to air-to-air missiles to take on ground targets and carry out longer-range air combat operations. With two internal weapons bays, the Su-57 can carry up to eight K-77M air-to-air missiles. The airframe is powered by Izdeliye 117 or AL-41F1 turbofan engines, which Moscow asserts will be replaced by newer Izdeliye 30 engines.

 Since Moscow is struggling financially under sanctions, this engine upgrade may not occur as soon as the Kremlin wishes. “

That last sentence hasn’t aged well! The condition and capability of the F-16’s from NATO countries is, of course, not public. It would be safe to say that these jets are staged in the countries neighbouring Ukraine like Romania and Poland. Whether they can or will be shot down by Russian air defences’ as soon as they enter Ukraine airspace, or whether Russia has not already destroyed air bases inside Ukraine remains to be seen. Certainly, any electricity needed will be in short supply after Russia’s destruction of almost the entire Ukraine national grid.

Russia has the SU-57 “Felon”.

“The Felon sports air-to-surface missiles in addition to air-to-air missiles to take on ground targets and carry out longer-range air combat operations. With two internal weapons bays, the Su-57 can carry up to eight K-77M air-to-air missiles. The airframe is powered by Izdeliye 117 or AL-41F1 turbofan engines, which Moscow asserts will be replaced by newer Izdeliye 30 engines. Since Moscow is struggling financially under sanctions, this engine upgrade may not occur as soon as the Kremlin wishes. “

Here’s a few more specifics – well, the published ones anyway!

Sukhoi Su-57 Felon Fighter Jet, Russia (airforce-technology.com)

·        “Powered by Izdeliye 117 or AL-41F1 augmented turbofans.

·        Future production batches will be equipped with the new Izdeliye 30 engines.

·        Can fly at a speed of up to Mach two without afterburners.

·        Has a range of up to 3,500km at subsonic speeds.

·        Features side-facing cheek-mounted radars, infrared search and track, directional infrared countermeasures system, and 3D thrust vectoring.

·       “The Su-57 is equipped with air-to-surface missiles to take on ground targets and air-to-air missiles for long-range air combat. It is also armed with 30mm air guns for close combat operations. The fighter has two large internal weapons compartments, each capable of carrying up to four K-77M air-to-air missiles.”

How many does Russia have? Well, that would be secret(ish) also. From here in January 2023:

What is the Number of Sukhoi Su-57 Fighter Jets Deployed by Russia? | Defensebridge

“As of May 2021, Russia has 74 Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets. The Russian military plans to completely replace its current fleet of fighters with the Su-57 over time and is expected to have 286 of the jets by 2028.”

A little more clarity also from 18 months ago here:

Russia receives more Su-57s as production ramps up (key.aero)

“Commenting on the production progress for both the Su-57 and Su-35S at the KnAAZ facility, Yury Slyusar – Director General of the UAC – added: “Our aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur has completed the programme for [2022] for the production of fifth-generation Su-57 aviation systems and Su-35S multi-role fighters for the Russian Aerospace Forces. We will continue to fulfil our obligations. Aircraft scheduled for delivery [in 2023] are already in production.”

NATO is not yet delivering any of its equivalent of the SU-57 – the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor.

Here’s a link to some details on the SU-35S.

What Makes Russia’s Su-35 Fighter Truly Special | The National Interest

“Since it entered service in 2014, the Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker-E has been the top Russian air-superiority fighter. The Su-35S Flanker-E+ is also the most advanced type of the Flanker family. It began development in 2033 and the first prototypes rolled out in 2007, while production began in 2009.

This month, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it has received the final three of the Flanker-E+ fighter jets, which were part of a five-year contract for fifty of the advanced aircraft, TASS reported. “

I am not the only one who makes typos! That 2033 date should be 2003!

Ukraine has already received hundreds of billions of dollars of equipment of all sorts in the last few years and is scheduled to receive hundreds of billions more.

Lends a whole new meaning to Churchill’s famous quote “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.”. The anniversary of that speech is August 20^th. History rhyming again!

Whoever establishes air superiority can establish “no-fly zones” over Ukraine. Remember how successful that was in prosecuting the war(s) in Iraq?

It will be utter humiliation for one side or the other.

Of note, if Russia does come out on top, the Air Forces of NATO countries in Europe will be obsolete - as well as depleted. The US can, of course. and is probably already. replacing the (aging?) F-16’s – lots of big bucks there. NATO will, however, be the weakest it has been for decades, even with its slow return to the 2% of GDP it was supposed to spend on its military capabilities under NATO agreements, over the last several decades.

Not that Russia has any military intentions within Europe, but just how easy would it be to take down the solar panel plantations and wind turbine forests within the EU and cripple the EU’s electricity supply? Highlighting the massive insecurity of such electricity generating devices and the ease of their destruction with a few cheap drones.

Just saying!

Onwards!!!

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