The impact of US trade tariffs on 6 Asian economies – by the numbers. China’s 84% retaliatory tariffs are “kind” compared to Trump’s 104% tariffs on China?
Using US import numbers from Brave AI (top paragraph per country) and some data from here (narrative sentences after):
All about China! Whether this encourages all the other Asian tigers to drop tariffs and compete directly with China – or whether China exports to the US using the tigers and Japan as a proxy, remains to be seen.
These numbers do not show US exports to each country. I haven’t drilled down into the detail of what kind of imports to th US – buckets, face masks, solenoids or spark plugs!
The number of US Treasuries each country holds is a potential fly in the ointment.
From here:
Foreign holdings of US Securities
ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt1d.txt
China has 1.4 trillion bucks’ worth (Hong Kong another 476 billion), Japan 2.4 trillion, Viet Nam 36 billion, Thailand 64 billion, Malaysia 53 billion, South Korea has a whopping 533 billion dollars,
Around 5 trillion bucks worth.
US holdings of foreign securities
ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt1f.txt
US residents own 276 billion dollars of Chinse securities (and another 131 billion of Hong Kong securities). US residents hold 1.08 trillion dollars’ worth of Japanese securities, 2.9 billion of Viet-Namese securities, 41 billion of Thai securities, 28 billion of Malaysian securities and 228 billion of South Korean securities.
Less than 2 trillion bucks/
That is what accumulated trade deficits look like on the capital account!
Here’s some more detail for the 6 Asian economies.
Viet Nam
“In 2024, the United States imported goods worth $136.6 billion from Vietnam, marking a 19 percent increase from the previous year. Vietnam's GDP in 2024 was estimated to be $476.3 billion, with a growth rate of 7.09%.
“Running the numbers, the Post found that exports to the US accounted for 23.03 per cent – nearly a quarter – of Vietnam’s total GDP.
With Trump announcing a 46 per cent tariff hike on the country – a key transshipment hub for firms bypassing China-focused US duties – the ING analysts estimated that 5.5 per cent of Vietnam’s GDP could be at risk.”
5.5% of US$476 billion of GDP = US$26 billion, charged a 46% = US$12 billion or 46% of US$136,6 billion = US$62.84 billion – take your pick!
Thailand
“In 2024, the United States imported $66.01 billion worth of goods from Thailand according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. The gross domestic product (GDP) of Thailand in 2024 is forecasted to be $528.92 billion U.S. dollars.”
“Thailand is widely seen as one of the Asian countries with the biggest exposure to the US, according to analysts. Data shows that exports to the US accounted for 9.29 per cent of Thailand’s GDP.
ING analysts estimate that a 36 per cent tariff rate could put around 3 per cent of Vietnam’s GDP at risk in the medium term.”
That last reference to “Viet Nam’s” looks like an error and should read “Thailand’s”.
Again, take your pick – 3% of US$529 billion = uS$15.9 billion times 36% = US$5.7 billion bucks worth of tariffs, or, 36% of US imports of US$66 billion = US$23.8 billion.
Malaysia
“In 2024, the United States imported $53.85 billion worth of goods from Malaysia according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Malaysia's GDP in 2024 is estimated to be around $439.75 billion US dollars.”
“US-bound goods from Malaysia made up 8.85 per cent of its total GDP in 2023, a relatively high rate. This Southeast Asian country now also faces a 24 per cent tariff hike from the US.”
US$54 billion of US imports at 24% tariff = US$ 13 billion.
South Korea
“In 2024, the United States imported $135.46 billion worth of goods from South Korea, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. The GDP of South Korea in 2024 was $1,712.79 billion in US dollars.”
“Exports to the US accounted for 6.24 per cent of South Korea’s 2023 GDP, and goods now face a 25 per cent additional “reciprocal tariff” from Washington.
135 billion dollars of US imports at 25% tariff = US$34 billion.
Japan
“In 2024, the United States imported $152.07 billion worth of goods from Japan according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Japan in 2024 was projected to be $4,070.09 billion U.S. dollars.”
“Japan, one of the US’ most important allies in Asia, was hit with a 24 per cent hike under Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariff” announcement.
According to a Post analysis of official data compiled by financial data provider WIND, exports to the US accounted for around 3.4 per cent of Japan’s GDP in 2023.”
US$152 billion times 24% = US$36.5 billion – or to use the South China Daily Post 3.4% of 2023 GDP number and GDP of 4 trillion US$ = a US$136 billion impact
And last, but not least:
China
“In 2024, the United States imported $462.62 billion worth of goods from China according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. The gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2024 was forecasted to be around 18,273.36 billion U.S. dollars.”
“,,, official Chinese data shows that the US accounted for 2.74 per cent of China’s GDP in 2023, and that percentage increased to 2.84 of China’s GDP in 2024.
Now the world’s second-largest economy is facing compounding tariffs that threaten to bring Washington’s total tariffs on Chinese goods to more than 100 per cent if Trump follows through on its latest threat of a new 50 per cent levy.
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Onwards!!!