Trump is “locked and loaded” to strike Iran as the death toll (unverifiable) increases to over 12,000 – what could this mean and what collateral damage could occur?

Russia and China to back Iran?- NATO, Israel and Sunnis to join the US? - pick a side!

Trump is “locked and loaded” to strike Iran as the death toll (unverifiable) increases to over 12,000 – what could this mean and what collateral damage could occur?

From Brave AI:

“The latest unofficial death toll from the Iranian uprising, as reported by the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), is at least 2,571 people killed, with 2,403 of the deceased identified as protesters.

Additional sources provide varying estimates:

· The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) reported over 3,000 deaths as of January 11, 2026, based on investigations across 195 cities.

· CBS News cited a range of 12,000–20,000 protester deaths, though this figure is not independently verified and appears to be speculative.

· Iran’s government has officially acknowledged around 2,000 deaths, but human rights groups and international observers question the reliability of this number.

The latest unofficial figure for arrests during the Iranian uprising, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), is at least 18,137 individuals detained since the protests began in late December 2025.

This number represents an increase from earlier reports and is cited in updates as of January 13, 2026. HRANA states its data is based on cases it can identify and verify, though independent confirmation remains difficult due to ongoing internet blackouts in Iran.

Those arrested are likely to be sentenced to death as is the case with “Erfan Soltani, a 26-year-old Iranian man, is set to be publicly executed today, January 14, 2026, marking the first death sentence linked to the ongoing anti-Khamenei protests.”

Trump has stated:

(14) Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social on X: “Donald J. Trump Truth Social 01.02.26 02:58 AM If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President” / X

Who can Trump shoot at ad would that end the genocide in Iran?

The military are obvious targets The IRGC is already proscribed by the US as a terrorist organisation – “… the United States designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) on April 15, 2019, under the Trump administration.

There are military and religious backers of the Iranian regime.

The main military supporters of the ruling Iranian regime are the (IRGC and the Artesh) – and the religious backers are Islamic clerics (mullahs):

“The Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh) has approximately 350,000 personnel in its Ground Forces, which constitute the largest component of the Artesh. This includes 220,000 conscripts and 130,000 professional soldiers. Thus, the total active personnel within the Artesh across all branches is estimated at 420,000.

These numbers are part of Iran’s broader military structure, which includes 610,000 active-duty personnel when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Police Command are included.

“Iran is overwhelmingly Shia, with 90–95% of its Muslim population identifying as Twelver Shia, the largest branch of Shia Islam.”

Mullahs in Iraq are religious scholars and clerics, primarily within the Shia Muslim community, who play significant roles in religious, social, and political life.

“Nearly **180,000 clerics, or mullahs**, preach the teachings of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei across Iran, according to a report from France 24 dated May 9, 2025.

A little historical background context on the military capabilities of Iran. Remember this?

“During the 1991 Gulf War, approximately 115 to 121 Iraqi military aircraft fled to Iran to avoid destruction by coalition airstrikes.”

· “44 Sukhoi Su-20 and Su-22

· 12 MiG-23

· 7 MiG-25

· 4 MiG-29

· 24 Su-24

· 24 Mirage F.1

· Additional aircraft such as 15 Ilyushin Il-76s, 17 civilian airliners, and 2 Adnan I airborne early warning aircraft.

The exodus began in January 1991, with Iraqi planes flying to Iran under orders from Saddam Hussein to preserve the air force. Iran declared neutrality and impounded the aircraft, which have not been returned to Iraq.”

And now?

“ The IRIAF operates a mixed fleet of 310 U.S.-made aircraft, including F-4 Phantom II, F-14 Tomcat, and F-5 Tiger II variants, alongside Soviet, Chinese, and Swedish platforms, with a total active inventory of 638 aircraft as of 2026. Key aircraft in the IRIAF fleet (2026):

· Fighters: F-14A Tomcat (39 active), F-4D/E, RF-4E Phantom II (65), F-5E/F Tiger II (35), MiG-29A/UB (24), Su-24MK (21), F-7M (17), Mirage F1EQ4/EQ5/EQ6 (12/5).

· Trainers: PC-7 (34), Yak-130 (2), F-33C, Fajr-3, FT-7.

· Transport & Special: C-130E/H (28), IL-76 (6), Boeing 747/707 (9/5), P-3F Orion (5).

· Helicopters: CH-47 Chinook (2), Bell 212 (1), Bell 206 (3), and domestically produced variants like Shabaviz 2-75 and Shabaviz 206.

“The IRIAF’s role is primarily air defense, with limited offensive capability due to aging Western equipment and maintenance challenges. In contrast, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force (IRGC-ASF) has emerged as a more agile, asymmetric force, specializing in drones (e.g., Mohajer-6, Qods Mohajer), ballistic missiles, and UAVs used in regional operations.

“ The IRIAF’s combat effectiveness has been tested in recent years, with two F-14 Tomcats destroyed in Israeli drone strikes in June 2025, underscoring vulnerabilities in air defense against advanced precision strikes.”

“ Despite these setbacks, Iran continues to expand its fleet with 25 aircraft on order, including Su-35s, and invests heavily in indigenous development, such as the Azarakhsh and Karrar fighters, to sustain long-term air power.”

Which prompts the question of Russia and China’s reaction to an attack on Iran by US (and Nato?) forces.

As for the US (and Israel?) forces?

“Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) is the largest and most strategically significant U.S. military installation near Iran, hosting around 10,000 troops and serving as the forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

· “Naval Support Activity Bahrain: Home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, responsible for maritime operations in the Gulf, Red Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean — critical for controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

· Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base (Kuwait): Key logistics and air operations hubs supporting deployments into Iraq and Syria.

· Al Dhafra Air Base (United Arab Emirates): A major U.S. Air Force hub supporting missions in the region, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

· Ain al-Asad and Erbil Air Bases (Iraq): Located in western and northern Iraq, these bases support U.S. operations and cooperation with Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Erbil Air Base has been a focal point for U.S. military coordination and training.

· Prince Sultan Air Base (Saudi Arabia): Hosts U.S. air defense systems and supports aircraft operations, situated within range of Iranian medium-range missiles.

These installations form a strategic arc around Iran, enabling rapid power projection and contingency response. In recent days, the U.S. has enhanced defenses at Al Udeid with a new air defense operations cell, amid escalating tensions following Iran’s warnings of retaliation if attacked.

TH strike power of the fifth fleet.

· “Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs): Typically one forward-deployed carrier strike group (e.g., USS Eisenhower or USS Abraham Lincoln), providing air superiority, long-range strike, and rapid response.

· Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs) or Expeditionary Strike Groups (ESGs): Enable rapid deployment of Marines and equipment for amphibious operations.

· Surface Combatants: Destroyers and cruisers equipped with advanced missile defense and offensive systems.

· Submarines: Nuclear-powered attack submarines (e.g., Virginia-class) offering stealth and precision strike capabilities.

· Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft: Conduct surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, and intelligence gathering.

· Unmanned Systems: Increasingly integrated for enhanced domain awareness and strike support.

The fleet operates under U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), which shares a commander with the Fifth Fleet, ensuring seamless coordination with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Its presence ensures freedom of navigation, deters aggression, and safeguards critical global energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

“A Carrier Strike Group brings over 50 air-to-ground capable aircraft, including F/A-18 Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, and F-35C Lightning IIs, depending on the carrier air wing configuration. The fleet’s airpower is further augmented by maritime patrol aircraft (P-8A Poseidon), unmanned systems (MQ-4C Triton), and support from regional bases hosting additional fighter squadrons such as F-35s and F-22s.

“While exact numbers are classified, the Fifth Fleet leverages a large and growing fleet of drones (including high-altitude, maritime, and surface UAVs) and hundreds of missiles across its deployed ships and aircraft.

Which will, no doubt be supported by th IDF!

“Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is the national military of the State of Israel, established on 26 May 1948, and consists of three service branches: the Israeli Ground Forces, the Israeli Air Force, and the Israeli Navy. The IDF has a total of 169,500 active personnel and 465,000 reserve personnel, with a military age of 17 and a conscription period of 24–34 months.

Where are the military bases of Aresh and the IRGC?

“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces maintain a network of 10 regional headquarters across Iran, each overseeing military operations in specific provinces. These include:

· Sar-Allah (Tehran and Alborz provinces) – Controls Tehran’s security and military operations.

· Hamze Seyyed-al-Shohada (West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan) – Manages western borders with Iraq and Turkey.

· Karbala (Khuzestan, Lorestan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad) – Focuses on southern and western border security.

· Samen-al-Aeme (North Khorasan, South Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan) – Established to counter threats from Afghanistan.

· Najaf-al-Ashraf (Ilam, Hamadan, Kermanshah) – Tracks origins to the Iran–Iraq War.

· Quds (Sistan and Baluchestan, Kerman) – Key for eastern border operations.

· Ghadir (Mazandaran, Golestan, Gilan) – Manages northern coastal and border regions.

· Madineh-ye al-Munavareh (Fars, Bushehr, Hormozgan) – Controls the southern region near the Strait of Hormuz.

· Ashura (East Azerbaijan, Zanjan, Ardabil) – Coordinates northern border operations.

· Saheb-al-Zaman (Markazi, Qom, Semnan, Qazvin) – Oversees central Iran and Qom.

Additionally, the IRGC operates 32 provincial corps and 11 military headquarters, with bases often located in remote, mountainous, or underground areas for protection.

Artesh (Islamic Republic of Iran Army) bases are distributed across the country, with key concentrations in:

· Tehran and surrounding areas – Hosts command centers, training facilities, and missile research sites.

· Western borders with Iraq – Strategic ground force deployments near key border crossings and mountainous terrain.

· Central Iran – Houses underground missile development and production facilities.

· Coastal regions (Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman) – Naval bases at Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Jask, and Bushehr support both Artesh Navy and IRGC-N.

· Air Force Bases – Include Mehrabad International Airport (Tehran) and Bandar Abbas International Airport, which serve dual military and civilian roles.

Both forces maintain overlapping presence in many regions, with Artesh focusing on conventional defense and IRGC emphasizing ideological missions, asymmetric warfare, and extraterritorial operations.

Iran “bosses” Iraq.

“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): The IRGC maintains a significant presence in Iraq, primarily through its support of allied militias and proxy forces. While the IRGC does not operate formal military bases in Iraq, it has established logistical hubs, command centers, and training facilities in key locations such as Fallujah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and the vicinity of Baghdad.”

What would the response be from Russia and China – would other NATO members (and other middle eastern Sunni Muslims states?) join with the US?

“Sunni Arab states in the Middle East are those where the majority of the population follows Sunni Islam. These include:

· Saudi Arabia: Over 85% Sunni, with a small Shia minority.

· Egypt: Approximately 90% Sunni.

· Jordan: Around 93% Sunni.

· Syria: About 73% Sunni.

· Iraq: Roughly 36% Sunni (though historically a Sunni-majority country before recent conflicts).

· Yemen: Approximately 55% Sunni, with a significant Zaidi Shia population (35%) and Houthis (5%).

· Tunisia: Nearly 99% Sunni.

· Morocco: About 99% Sunni.

· Algeria: Around 98% Sunni.

· Libya: Approximately 99% Sunni.

He US could “take out” most (if not all) of the concentrations of the IRGC and Aresh military barracks and defence/offence systems (in both Iran and Iraq) given the level and sophistication of its intel systems?

Which leaves the religious backers of the regime the mullahs. Can these be attacked I some way? I think not. – they cannot be imprisoned as the Chinese have done with a million Uighurs and their organs harvested! The Iranians themselves are the only “legitimate” people who can arrest, imprison and prosecute these scholars. Do they think that mullahs are the enforcers of the brutal regime along with the IRGC? Where do the Iranian police stand and the justice system stand on this issue – could they even lay any charges?

“The Police Command of the Islamic Republic of Iran, also known as NAJA or FARAJA, has over 260,000 personnel, including border guard and other law enforcement units.

Onwards!

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