UK defence spending – how does the pledge to spend 5% of GDP by 2035 stack up?
1.25 TRILLION pounds required by 2035 and then a doubling of annual spend to £160 billion pounds from the current annual spend of £75 billion
time to put up, shut up, -or face reality and renege on NATO commitments!!!
From Brave AI:
“At the June 2025 Hague Summit, NATO allies agreed to a historic commitment to increase defense and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, more than doubling the previous 2% benchmark.
To achieve this goal, member states are required to submit annual plans detailing a credible, incremental path to the target, with national roadmaps due by mid-2026 and a collective progress review scheduled for 2029. “
The UK, as a member of NATO UK defence spending is currently 2.5% of GDP for the year ending March 2025, meeting the government’s interim target. is a co-signature to this Agreement. Here is what the current position of the Marxist Labour government has said :
“UK defence spending is currently 2.5% of GDP for the year ending March 2025, meeting the government’s interim target.
The UK government has committed to raising this to 2.5% by 2027 (including security and intelligence spending under the NATO definition) and further increasing it to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. “
You will notice a differences in what the UK has agreed to with NATO and what it is actually planning to do.
I have constructed the table below that assumes 1% GDP growth and a flat line increase in defence spending from the current 2.5% to the final 5% in 2035.
Note the pledge is to maintain 5% of GDP for defence IN PERPETUITY FROM 2035 ONWARDS!
The percent of GDP must increase by 0.0325% every year to grow spending from 2.5% to%% by 2035
Annual GDP is assumed to increase by a paltry! 1% per annum to reflect the economic destruction inflicted by the Marxist Labour government as a result of tax increases, minimum wage hikes and ‘net zero’ policies.
Here is the ten year track of increasing spending on GDP by 0.0325% per annum and an assumed 1% growth in GDP over the ten-yar period:
Starting point of2026, 2.5% and 3 trillion pounds of nominal GDP
By 2030, the track to 5% of GDP by 2025 is now 3.8% of GDP and GDP has grown to £3.12 trillion. So defence spending must no be drum roll… £119 billion , up from 75 billion in 2026 – an extra 44 billion in annual defence spending.
From 2026 to 2030 defence spending must total £483 billion to meet the promise made to NATO.
Step forward to 2035, cumulative defence spending over the ten years 2026-2035 totals one and a quarter TRILLION pounds and must equate to £162 billion every year – up from the current £75 billion.
These numbers must either be in the defence spending review due imminently or the UK must formally renege on its NATO commitments.
From Brave AI:
“the detailed Defence Investment Plan (DIP), a 10-year roadmap intended to implement the SDR’s 62 recommendations, has been significantly delayed and is not yet published. Critics, including SDR co-author Lord Robertson and military chiefs, warn of a £28 billion shortfall and “corrosive complacency,” noting that the armed forces remain underfunded and ill-prepared for full-scale conflict despite the announced increases.
“The term SDR62 refers to the 62 recommendations contained in the UK’s Strategic Defence Review 2025, a comprehensive “root and branch” review of the nation’s defence landscape published in June 2025.
Led by Lord Robertson, the review sets a vision for the UK to become a leading tech-enabled defence power by 2035, organized around five key ambitions:
NATO First: Strengthening European security and nuclear capabilities, including transforming aircraft carriers into hybrid air wings.
Warfighting Readiness: Moving toward an Integrated Force utilizing AI and autonomy, with significant investments in submarines, next-generation jets, and a £15bn sovereign warhead programme.
Engine for Growth: Revitalizing domestic industry through £6bn in munitions investment, building new factories, and establishing a £400m UK Defence Innovation fund.
Digital Warfare: Harnessing lessons from Ukraine to create a New Digital Targeting Web (delivered by 2027) and integrating sensors and effectors at wartime pace.
Whole-of-Society Approach: Renewing the contract with service personnel, including £7bn for military accommodation renewal.
The UK Government has accepted all 62 recommendations, with implementation details to be further specified in a forthcoming Defence Investment Plan.
What’s the answer from the Marxist Labour government?
Starmer considers borrowing spree to fund defence
“Sources said Sir Keir was likely to announce a combination of higher debt and spending cuts to fund the DIP, because paying for it through borrowing alone would leave the Treasury close to its fiscal limit.”
The assumption is that other people have plenty of money and can’t wait for the UK government to waste it and default on its entire debt, also of £3 trillion pounds – but growing at around 5% not 1%.
So..put up, shut up or face reality!!
Onwards!
Please take a (paid or unpaid) subscription or forward this article to those you think might be interested.
You can also donate via Ko-fi – any amount from three dollars upwards. Ko-fi donations here: