UK’s housing crisis by the numbers

15 minute slums filled with economic migrants?

Using Brave AI as the data source:

“The UK housing shortage is estimated to be between 4.3 million and 6.5 million homes, depending on the methodology used to compare the UK against similar European nations.

• Centre for Cities estimates a backlog of 4.3 million missing homes based on historical build rates and stock size compared to European averages up to 2015.

• The Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) recently calculated a larger gap of 6.5 million homes, noting that the UK has only 446 homes per 1,000 people, which is the second-worst rate in comparable European countries.

• England accounts for the majority of this deficit, with estimates suggesting 5.85 million of the missing homes are located there.

• London specifically faces a shortage of approximately 1.1 million homes, having failed to meet long-term building targets despite high demand.

Even if net migration were reduced to zero, closing the gap by 2040 would still require building between 380,000 and 565,000 new homes per year, significantly higher than the current annual build rate of roughly 200,000–240,000.

The UK Labour government has set a target to build 1.5 million new homes in England over the current Parliament (2024–2029), aiming for an average of 300,000 net additional dwellings per year. This pledge, outlined in the 2024 manifesto, represents a 50% increase over the previous parliament’s output and seeks to address the housing shortage by prioritizing brownfield land and lower-quality “grey belt” green belt land near transport hubs.

To achieve this, the government has implemented significant planning reforms, including a revamped National Planning Policy Framework that mandates a default “yes” for suitable developments around rail stations and higher-density projects. Key measures include the New Homes Accelerator to unlock stalled sites, the introduction of mandatory housing targets for local authorities, and the identification of seven areas for potential new towns.

While Housing Secretary Steve Reed insists the target is achievable, industry bodies like the Home Builders Federation and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have expressed caution. The OBR currently forecasts 1.49 million net additional dwellings across the UK by 2029-30, noting that while supply will rise sharply to 305,000 annually by the end of the parliament, significant challenges regarding skilled labor shortages and affordability remain.

According to the most recent estimates provided by the government and verified by fact-checking organizations, approximately 342,100 net additional homes have been built in England since the current Parliament opened on 9 July 2024, up to mid-March 2026. This figure represents roughly 22.8% of the 1.5 million target.

As of March 31, 2025, there were 1.34 million households on local authority housing registers (waiting lists) in England, representing a 1% increase (9,833 households) from the previous year and the highest figure since 2014.

Key details regarding housing waiting lists in the UK:

• Regional Breakdown: London accounts for approximately 25% of England’s total, with 341,421 households on waiting lists as of March 2025 (a 2% increase from 2024).

• Wait Times: The National Housing Federation estimates the average wait for a social housing property in England is five and a half years, with some areas like Greenwich facing waits of up to 55 years.

• National Context: While official government statistics track households on local authority registers, housing charities such as the National Housing Federation suggest the real demand may be up to 500,000 households higher than official figures due to those in the private rental sector or temporary accommodation who are eligible but not on the official register.

• Lettings: In the 2024/25 period, 502,000 people in 263,000 households received a new social letting, which is a small fraction (6%) of the total social housing stock.

People currently housed in HMO’S and hotels.

As of December 2025, there were 30,657 asylum seekers housed in hotels and 72,769 in other government-supported accommodation, which primarily includes Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs) and flats.

The total number of people in asylum accommodation was 103,426. Specifically:

• Hotels: 30,657 people (approximately 30% of the total).

• Other Accommodation (HMOs/Flats): 72,769 people (approximately 70% of the total).

While exact figures for HMOs alone are not isolated in the latest December data, previous reports from June 2025 indicated that 64,426 people were in dispersal accommodation (including HMOs) while waiting for initial decisions, with the remainder in hotels or other temporary sites. The government has pledged to stop using hotels for asylum seekers by July 2029.

More than 100,000 asylum seekers/illegal immigrants/refugees in temporary accommodation.

I wonder who will get the new houses first – my bet is those in HMO’S and hotels!!!

Here are details of plans for 7 new (15 minute) cities and around 200,000 new homes out of the 1.5 million new homes demanded by the government by 2029.

The UK government has not announced a specific scheduled completion date for the seven proposed new towns.

• Current Status: The locations were shortlisted in March 2026, with a public consultation running until May 18, 2026.

• Next Steps: Final locations will be confirmed in late Summer 2026 following the completion of Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA).

• Construction Timeline: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated that “spades in the ground” are expected at some sites by 2029, but the total development of these towns—each planning for 10,000 to 40,000 homes—is projected to span the coming decades.

The UK government has confirmed seven locations for new towns, each aiming to deliver at least 10,000 homes (with several targeting up to 40,000) and a 40% affordable housing target. The seven proposed sites are:

• Tempsford, Bedfordshire: Up to 40,000 homes around a new East West Rail station.

• Brabazon and the West Innovation Arc, South Gloucestershire: Up to 40,000 homes near a research and engineering hub.

• Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire: Around 40,000 homes to expand the existing city.

• Crews Hill and Chase Park, Enfield: Up to 21,000 homes to address London’s housing needs.

• Leeds South Bank, West Yorkshire: Up to 20,000 homes leveraging local transport investments.

• Manchester Victoria North, Greater Manchester: At least 15,000 homes with a new Metrolink stop.

• Thamesmead, Greenwich: Up to 15,000 homes enabled by the DLR extension.

These developments are part of an extension to the 1946 New Towns Act, with the government aiming to have construction begin on at least three sites before the next general election. A public consultation on the locations and planning policy is currently underway until May 18, 2026.

Let’s check out Brabazon new town in a bit more detail:

available listings indicate a wide price range based on property type, size, and tenure:

• Apartments and Studios: Prices start around £215,000 for studios or 1-bedroom apartments (e.g., Runway Avenue, Leasehold).

• 2-Bedroom Homes: Guide prices for 2-bedroom terraced houses typically range from £317,000 to £445,000 (e.g., Fairlawn Avenue, Freehold).

• 3-Bedroom Homes: Prices for 3-bedroom properties generally range from £325,000 to £546,500, with larger or premium models reaching up to £525,000–£546,500.

• 4-Bedroom Homes: Larger 4-bedroom houses are listed with guide prices around £669,000.

Hardly “affordable! Let’s assume an average price for 200,000 new2-3 bedroom homes of £400,000 – that equates to a capital cost of£ 80billion pounds – one fifth of which -£16 billion must be sold at a 20% discount for an instant loss of £3.2 billion pounds to the taxpayer.

I doubt those “buying” the new homes will stay in them. They will sell quickly and repay the government housing assistance/low-cost loans provided by the taxpayer.

The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) defines affordable housing as housing for sale or rent for those whose needs are not met by the market, including subsidized home ownership and housing for essential local workers. To qualify, the housing must comply with one or more of the following specific definitions found in Annex 2 of the framework:

• Affordable housing for rent: Rent is set according to government policy for Social Rent or Affordable Rent, or is at least 20% below local market rents. The landlord is typically a registered provider, and provisions must ensure the home remains affordable for future eligible households or that subsidies are recycled.

• Starter homes: Homes specified under the Housing and Planning Act 2016, with eligibility determined by local incomes and house prices.

• Discounted market sales housing: Sold at a discount of at least 20% below local market value, with eligibility based on local incomes and prices.

• Other affordable routes to home ownership: Includes shared ownership, relevant equity loans, other low-cost homes for sale (at least 20% below market value), and rent to buy schemes. If public grant funding is used, provisions must ensure long-term affordability or subsidy recycling.

Additionally, the NPPF mandates that where major development includes housing provision, at least 10% of the units should be for affordable home ownership, subject to specific exceptions and local viability assessments. Affordable housing provisions are generally sought only on sites of ten or more homes (or five or more in designated rural areas).

A Mandated 20% discount on th e price of the house or its rent = ‘affordable. Who pays for that?

Thos 7 new towns are planned to be 15 minute cities. From here:

The UK government’s plans for 15-minute cities forge ahead – starting in Bristol - The Expose

“The UK government is yet again obeying the UN’s directions by making moves to house “individuals” in “human settlements.”

As one of 7 “new towns,” construction is underway near Bristol that will, ultimately, have 25,000 homes. The problem is not the building of new homes; it is that they are being designed as 15-minute cities.

“In 2024, South Gloucestershire Council passed a resolution to grant planning approval for the masterplan for Brabazon. At the time, South Gloucestershire Newsroom (“SGN”) described it as “the most exciting new city district.”

“The plans – developed by a consortium of world-renowned architects and planners – also In a September 2025 article, Gloucestershire Live reported that construction was already underway, with hundreds of homes completed and occupied. The site is recognised as one of the country’s largest brownfield redevelopments, focusing on sustainable transport, including Metrobus links and cycling infrastructure, UK Property Forums said.

Make no mistake about it, the UK government and our local governments have planned 15-minute cities and are moving ahead with building them.

Watch the short video published by Manchester Truthers a couple of days ago: ‘Bristol Brabazon Matrix May 2026. New Town 15 Minute Neighbourhood’.

three new schools and plans for a higher education or research campus alongside creative office spaces, laboratories and advanced manufacturing facilities,” SGN said.

“If we are to tackle the climate crisis, we need to build more sustainable homes in the right places,” Seb Loyn, Planning & Development Director for YTL Developments, told SGN.

“The development will help reduce reliance on car travel with metrobus and local buses serving the area along with the train station which already has secured planning permission. A community hub and health care facility will also be provided, along with parks, lakes and open spaces, with over 3,500 trees planted on the site,” Councillor Chris Willmore, Cabinet member responsible for planning at South Gloucestershire Council, said.

How much extra will building 15 minute cities instead of “ordinary” cities actually cost in money terms and in the number of homes built in these new cities.

Climate cultists on (newly elected?) don’t ask, and just munch though custard creams and drink coffee during planning meetings where their virtue signalling is on full display.

1.5 million new “green” homes at £400,000 a pop – 600 billion pounds – plus the costs od sewage/drainage and other infrastructure like magic roundabouts, street lighting access roads into new towns and onto driveways – call it a trillion pounds SO FAR.

Maybe a “regular” city would cost half that?

I bet no town councillors even bothered to ask before giving the go ahead for these new 15 minute cities.

Maybe the newly elected councillors will be more circumsp ect.

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