Using Brave browser to check the cost of electricity produced from natural gas and offshore wind turbines – which one do you think costs thousands of times more with a thousand times the "footprint"

Using Brave browser to check the cost of electricity produced from natural gas compared to offshore wind turbines – which one do you think costs thousands of times more and has an environmental footprint a thousand times greater? Hint: pull my finger!

I have been trying to get to the bottom of what could be the truth about the relative cost of electricity from natural gas (methane) and offshore wind turbines. I don’t think I am anywhere near the bottom of the well as far as accurate conclusions are concerned, but the malice and folly of government globally to leap on the offshore wind lunacy compared to the natural gas balloon is rally bugging me!

If I am right with these “back of the envelope” calculations, there is the potential to place the entire “net zero” narrative into context and much sharper relief. The intention is to, at least, promote a debate around the laws, regulations, tax breaks, subsidies that are being enacted globally. If I am even half right – the rubber meets the road in many ways – this data implies that prices for energy can come down by at least 90% - improving living standards at the marginal levels of poverty by the same amount.

Remember, this is the typical type of prize plonker we are all up against – a moronic sycophant of the Marxist/Socialist/Cult of Moloch who considers that killing 4,000 pensioners a year to fund offshore wind projects that will cause even more pensioners deaths by jacking up energy prices by 14% by January 2025 is “saving the planet”.

“Pull my finger, butt wipe!”

Rt Hon Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. He is the exact opposite of his title.

 Here’s some more research notes, see what you think!

So, I thought I would ask the AI embedded in Brave browser to cross check the numbers and logic developed in these articles, anchored on the use of British Thermal :Units (BTU’s) – converted to kWh – ad the Natural Gas futures contract – 10,000 MMBTU – where the MM of MMBTU represents a million (the “European” convention of “mille, mille”, = a thousand, thousand)

True Cost of Energy Comparisons – Apples to Apples | Oklahoma State University (okstate.edu)

“Electrical energy is obviously quite different than fuels. In the end, it can be used for the same types of tasks as fuels and can be compared. Electrical energy is described by Kilowatt-hours, which can be directly converted to Btu’s if describing heat energy (1 kWh = 3,412 Btu).”

Natural Gas Trading Strategy – Backtest, Futures Example, and Insights - Quantified Strategies

“On the CME platform, one contract unit of natural gas futures is equivalent to 10,000 MMBtu …  “

Using the number of 3,412 BTU per kWh and 10,000 million BTU (10,000,000,000 BTU or 10 billion BTU) per futures contract, we can derive the number of kWh per futures contract as 10 billion BTU divided by 3,412 BTU per kWh =

10 billion divided by 3,412 BTU per kWh = 2,930,832 kWh = 2,930 mWh – for around 2 bucks/pounds sterling.

Call it 3,000 mWh.

Now, gas fired power stations are around 33% “efficient” – so call it 1,000 mWh for two bucks.

We can compare that to the CFD (contract for difference) price for offshore wind turbine electricity generation in the latest UK auction for 2027 of 82 pounds per mWh (around 100 bucks). This purchase will be on-sold to UK households at a mark-up in order for the purchaser to make a fat profit.

Natural gas = 2 dollars for 1,000 mWh for natural gas v 100 bucks for one mWh for offshore wind.

To put it another way,

offshore wind costs 100,000 bucks for 1,000 mWh v 2 dollars for natural gas – or –

one mWh of natural gas costs 0.002 dollars (0.2 cents) v 100 bucks per mWh for natural gas.

Offshore wind is 50,000 times more expensive than natural gas.

Here’s the comparison to average US electricity costs per household, from here:

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

“We forecast the U.S. average residential retail electricity price this summer will be 16 cents/kwh… “

16 cents per kWh = 160 bucks per mWh v 0.002 dollars per mWh for natural gas and 100 bucks for offshore wind. Guess where US household electricity prices are heading as more offshore wind turbines come on stream?

Okay, let’s segue into the Brave browser AI by checking out how much US households are influenced by the much cheaper natural gas component for electricity.

“34% of total U.S. electricity generation comes from natural gas-fired power plants (2023 EIA data).

12% to 15% of household electricity in the USA is estimated to be supplied by natural gas-fired power stations (based on aggregate data)”.

Here’s the Brave response to “what is the equivalent kwh of 10 000 000 000 btu”.

1         “10 Billion BTU to kWh Equivalent

Based on the provided search results, we can establish a conversion factor between BTU and kWh. The most consistent and reliable conversion factor is:

1 BTU/h ≈ 0.00029307107 kW

To convert 10,000,000,000 BTU to kWh, we can multiply the BTU value by this conversion factor:

10,000,000,000 BTU × 0.00029307107 kW/BTU ≈ 29,301,070 kWh

So, the equivalent kWh of 10,000,000,000 BTU is approximately 29,301,070 kWh.”

Which is 29,301 mWh – call it 3,000 mWh per 10,000 MMBTU futures contract for around 2 bucks/pounds.

So, that confirms the “raw” arithmetic.

Ok, time to go down a few more rabbit holes for some more context:

First a couple of fun facts

https://reneweconomy.com.au/comparing-wind-turbine-power-consumption-to-coal-and-gas-63694/

“After generating 7,327 megawatt hours, the turbine consumed only 12.7 megawatt hours. “

And from Brave:

“Conclusion: A single wind turbine likely uses around 80-100 gallons of lubricating oil annually, although the exact figure may vary depending on the turbine’s specifications and maintenance schedule.”

100 wind turbines in a plantation/wind farm = 10,000 gallons a year. – discharged into the sea once used?

How much does it cost to build a gas fired power station?

Brave browser answer to the question “how much does a gas fired power station cost”

“In summary, the cost of a gas-fired power station can range from approximately $512 to $2,095 per kilowatt, depending on the technology and capacity.”

So, between half a million bucks and 2 million bucks per megawatt.

And to this “how much does an offshore wind turbine cost”.

2         “Offshore Wind Turbine Cost

Based on the provided search results, here is a summary of the estimated costs:

·        Average cost of installed offshore wind energy worldwide in 2022: $3,461 per kilowatt (year-over-year increase of over 13%)

·        Total cost of an average turbine: $2.5 million to $4 million

·        Large offshore turbines (up to 12 MW): tens of millions of dollars

·        Most powerful 12 MW wind turbine: up to $400 million to manufacture and install

·        Cost per megawatt (MW): generally around $1 million

Additionally, a specific example of a large offshore turbine, GE’s Haliade-X 14 MW, has a reported cost between $11-$13 million.

It’s worth noting that offshore wind installation costs can vary widely, ranging from $800-2,500 per kilowatt, depending on project parameters, such as the number of vessels used and their specialization.”

So, around 800,000 bucks and 2.5 million bucks per megawatt.

Compared to a million bucks for a gas fired power station.

Let’s take a look at transmission costs.

Brave browser answer to the question “how much does it cost to transmit electricity from a gas fired power station” and “how much does it cost to transmit electricity from an offshore wind turbine” t get a handle on the construction costs associated with the transmission of electricity from a gas fired power station ad an offshore wind turbine plantation/farm.

For gas-fired power stations, using 2015 EIA data:

“… we can estimate the cost of building transmission lines and substations to connect a gas-fired power station to the grid. A rough estimate for transmission infrastructure costs is around $1,000 to $2,000 per kilometer (km) of high-voltage transmission line (Source: various industry reports). For a 1,000 MW gas-fired power station, let’s assume a transmission infrastructure cost of approximately $500 million to $1 billion,”

For operations and maintenance costs:

“… O&M costs for high-voltage transmission lines range from $20 to $50 per MW-year (Source: industry reports and studies). For a 1,000 MW gas-fired power station, this translates to approximately $20 million to $50 million per year… “

For transmission losses:

“… These losses are typically around 5-10% of the transmitted power (Source: IEEE). For a 1,000 MW gas-fired power station, this would result in approximately 50-100 MW of lost power, equivalent to a revenue loss of around $5-10 million per year, assuming an average electricity price of $50/MWh.”

Now for offshore wind turbines:

Cable costs:

“According to a 2024 UK guide, the cost of a single 66 kV submarine cable can range from £1.5 million to £3 million (approximately $1.9 million to $3.8 million USD) per kilometer”. 

Transformer costs:

“The cost of a single offshore transformer can range from £1 million to £3 million (approximately $1.3 million to $3.8 million USD) [2].”

Connection to the grid:

“… the construction of onshore substations and transmission lines, can add millions of dollars to the overall cost.”

Brave provided these numbers for the real world:

·        “The Hornsea 1 offshore wind farm in the UK, with a capacity of 1.2 GW, required approximately 100 kilometers (62 miles) of submarine cables, costing around £150 million (approximately $193 million USD) [3].

·        The Vineyard Wind 1 project off the coast of Massachusetts, USA, with a capacity of 800 MW, is expected to have transmission costs of around $500 million to $700 million USD [4].”

Complex stuff, more analysis needed!

How about the environmental impact on atmosphere, marine, insect and avian life ad space taken up per mWh?

Question to Brave “how much space does a typical gas fired power station take up”

“For a 600 MW to 700 MW gas-fired combined-cycle power station, a rough estimate of the land requirements could be:

·        20 to 50 acres (8 to 20 hectares) for the power block and associated infrastructure

·        Additional space for auxiliary systems, such as cooling towers, fuel storage, and electrical substations

·        Overall, the power station may occupy around 50 to 150 acres (20 to 61 hectares) of land

Around 50-100 acres (0.08 to 0.16 square miles) for a typical gas fired power station, generating 500-800 mW.

From the answer to a Brave question of “how much space does a typical offshore wind farm take up”:

“To provide a rough estimate, a typical offshore wind farm might occupy an area of around 1-5 square miles (2.6-13 square kilometers), depending on the number and size of turbines. However, this is a broad range and can vary significantly depending on the specific project.”

Five square miles = 3,200 acres – compared to maybe 100 acres for a gas fired power station.

The “space” occupied by offshore wind farms excludes the height of the blades and the depth down to the sea bed.

Brave answer to “how high can the blades of an offshore wind turbine make the whole”.

“To estimate the maximum height of the blades, let’s consider the GE Haliade-X turbine as an example. With a hub height of approximately 150 meters (500 feet) and 107-meter blades, the blades would be about 57 meters (187 feet) above the hub. Adding this to the hub height, the total height of the turbine would be around 207 meters (679 feet).”

That would be the equivalent of a 70-storey building.  A “farm” of 100 turbines is getting to be typical. Not so much a farm as a large plantation!

Brave answer to “what is the maximum depth for anchored offshore wind turbines”.

“…  40 meters appears to be the maximum depth for traditional bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines, while floating wind turbine systems can operate in much deeper waters.”

“… floating wind turbine systems (FWTS) have been developed to operate in deeper waters. For example, the WindFloat system can operate in water depths ranging from 45 meters to 350 meters.”

Probably using the same technology/construction techniques as used I oil rigs.

If we view a single wind turbine as a two dimensional object that is 207 metres above the surface and 40 metres below the surface, for a total of around 250 metres across by the diameter of the blades of twice 57 metres =114 metres, we get an area of 250 metres by 114 metres = 28,500 square metres = 7 acres, per wind turbine. An offshore wind farm

There must be fifteen rotor diameters apart. To maximise efficacy of power generation.

For a 100 wind turbine farm – producing , we are up to a width, assuming a single line of turbines of 114 metres times that 15, we now have a width of 13,110  and height/depth of 250 metres = 3,227,500 square meters = around 822 acres (around 13 square miles, not the 5 square miles mentioned above) – compared to the 0.2 square miles for a 600-700 mW gas fired power station.

Let’s get Brave’s answer to this question: “how many wind turbines on the Hornsea 1 offshore wind farm”.

·        “174 turbines and covers an area of 407 square kilometres (157.2 square miles)”

·        “The wind farm comprises 174 wind turbines of 7 megawatts (MW)”

·        “Hornsea Project One was constructed on an area of 407km² and is equipped with 174 Siemens wind turbines rated at 7MW each”

174 wind turbines with a capacity of 7 mW each = 1,218 mW, so two typical gas fired power stations, covering almost 160 square miles for the wind farm, v around a quarter of a square mile for two gas fired power stations.

From here: https://aspecto.ch/project/hornsea-one-project/

“The Hornsea wind farm was built 75 miles off the coast of Grimsby, at an estimated cost to energy bill-payers of at least £4.2 billion.”

A Brave answer to the question “how much does it cost to build a 600 mw gas fired power station”

“A 2021 report from the U.S. Natural Gas Generator construction costs states that combustion turbine power plants have an average construction cost of $512/kW. For a 600 MW plant, this would be around $307 million (600 MW x $512/kW).”

Two of those = around 600 million bucks to produce 2 c 600 mW gas fired power stations.

Let’s finish up with this answer from Brave – related to that 7 mW per turbine for Hornsea-1: “what percentage of the time do wind turbines operate at capacity”.

“A modern wind turbine produces electricity 70-85% of the time, but its output varies depending on wind speed. Over a year, it typically generates about 24% of its theoretical maximum output (41% offshore). This is known as its capacity factor.”

So that 7 mW is actually less than 3 mW!

·        Wind turbines do not operate at full capacity (100%) continuously due to factors such as maintenance, breakdowns, and varying wind speeds.

·        The capacity factor, which represents the ratio of actual output to maximum potential output, varies across different wind farms and locations.

·        The average capacity factor for wind projects has increased over time, indicating improved efficiency and technology advancements.

Gas fired power stations operate at around 33% efficiency, though dual fuels are taking to over 50%.

Still looking for input into how 2 bucks for 10,000 mWh (from 30,000 mWh at one third efficiency) can possibly fairly translate into 16 bucks per kWh for average US household electricity prices!

Onwards!!!

Please take a paid subscription or forward this article to those you think might be interested. You can also donate via Ko-fi – any amount from three dollars upwards. Ko-fi donations here:  https://ko-fi.com/peterhalligan