Vultures circling the carcass of Moderna
Let’s start with a price chart and profile of Moderna (ticker MRNA):
Down from a high of over 400 bucks in September 2021 to just 40 bucks at close of business last Friday – a fall of 90% from its peak.
From here (h/t another Peter H).
Moderna Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NASDAQ:MRNA)
“Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) was the recipient of unusually large options trading on Friday. Stock investors purchased 127,231 put options on the stock. This is an increase of 86% compared to the average volume of 68,321 put options.”
In the context of the 15-billion-dollar market capitalisation of Moderna the purchase of these put options is not large. The article does not mention the expiry date, the strike price or the price paid.
From Brave AI, the implied volatility for Modera options is described thus:
· “For January 2025 options, the implied volatility in the put contract example is 69% (in the “Interesting MRNA Put And Call Options For January 2025” snippet).
· For February 2025 options, the implied volatility in the put contract example is 63% (in the “February 2025 Options Now Available For Moderna (MRNA)” snippet).
Around 65% implied volatility. This means that the price of Moderna must exceed, say, 65% annual volatility in the next month or so – you can guesstimate the assumed future share price using the one or two month volatility - by dividing the annualised volatility by the square root of 12 divided and the number of months -
the implied share price is the current share price of 40 bucks adjusted for a whole month (January expiry) of annualised volatility of 69% divided by the square root of 12 = divided by 3.5 = 20%
and the February expiry by the square root of 6 = divide 63% by around 2.5 = 25%
Long story short, the put options will not begin to pay off until the Moderna share price drops by 20% - around 8 bucks to 32 dollars in January and by 25% - 10 bucks - to 30 dollars in February,
Participants in the market will have much more whizzy calculations to adjust for trading days and will also use volatility surfaces to get more accurate option prices.
What else is going on with Moderna?
From Yahoo:
Moderna Stock Down 39% in Three Months: Buy the Dip or Wait?
Zacks•6 days ago
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Faces Criticism from Cramer Amid High R&D Spending and Revenue Struggles
Insider Monkey•10 days ago
Argus downgrades Moderna to hold on weak near-term outlook
Investing.com•11 days ago
Hedge Funds Think That Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Will Bounce Back Soon
Insider Monkey•11 days ago
Fortune•13 days ago
Palantir Falls Despite Nasdaq 100 News, MicroStrategy Rises; Super Micro Gets The Axe
Investor's Business Daily•13 days ago
It is not as if the writing has not been on the wall for more than two years – when the share price was still over 150 bucks!
(100) Recall of Moderna C19 Injections? - by Peter Halligan
Onwards!!!
Please take a paid subscription or forward this article (including on “X” or another platform) to those you think might be interested. You can also donate via Ko-fi – any amount from three dollars upwards. Ko-fi donations here: https://ko-fi.com/peterhalligan
Yep, wish I'd had the guts to go short 2 yrs back. I underestimated the ability of the vaxxed to question further shots. All good.
— A L L - ALL TOTALLY DEMONIC …..!!!