9 Comments

Get Ready. Another 20% plus coming. The market has never been down after a 20% down year in the SP500 since the Great Depression! It's coming.

Expand full comment

Remember all the false accusations they made against President Trump and others? Well I have been watching closely ... every single thing they falsely accuse others of they do, have done or plan on doing. 100% of the time w/o fail. This is so reliable that one can accurately predict the future where they have influence. (lets see a few examples, everyone they used as an accusation at one point)

1) There be a war? Oops.

2) The stock market take huge hits or maybe even collapse? Oops.

3) His and their Rhetoric will cause violence? Oops.

4) People are racists? Who has caused more harm to the races they say they cared about? Them.

5) They will kill Granny? (took them awhile on this one, but they got it done).

6) Trump is mentally incompetent ... Oops.

7) There is a big one, not even going to write it as it is just too sad, and if it doesn't happen it wont be because of them not trying to make it happen. So if it doesn't and I hope that it doesn't ... even that doesn't fail the 100% rule.

8) Etc.

Q.E.D.

Expand full comment

Happy new year Peter! A question: a family member of mine has decided to invest in the foreign exchange market - using some sort of broker robot that does the investing for you. Do you think that's a good plan? I know nothing about investing. Wld appreciate yr advice (if/when you have the time).

Expand full comment

Happy 2023 to you yoo!

Expand full comment

Well, one of the first commandments to an investment adviser is NOT to provide financial advice to anyone without full knowledge of their personal financial circumstances and attitudes to the large or small, positive or negative swings in monthly/quarterly/annual returns.

The next commandment is that you must match liabilities wherever you can.

That being said, I cannot give any advice.

What I can say is that, in general, 70-90% of traders in f/x and derivative markets lose money.

I have personally traded f/x markets, spot and forward, using physical and derivative markets. I made a little money, using some traffic light one minute, 5 minute and one hour trigger signals. I also lost a little money. I have also managed f/x components of central bank reserves - based in US$ and £ - it was hard work beating 90 day LIBOR after (small) fees, but achievable within controlled risk parameters. (bonds and equites for pension fund and insurance companies was a lot easier than fx).

As for algo's used by bots? Well, all I can say about those is "the market always wins" - meaning the spot price in fx reflects all market information known including the impact of large buy/sell orders from many places. New information and players move the market. For algos to be successful they would need to be able to identify/predict market moving information BEFORE it happens on a consistent basis - i.e. tell the future.

We can all be impressed by seemingly prescient or superior risk-adjusted algos. If it was me and I was impressed enough to be motivated to give it a try, I would only invest what would not hurt me if it went, say, wrong by 20%. As with gambling, you have to know when to stop and when you have become addicted. Handing that control to a bot using an algo does not alter that need. The bot will not stop if things go repeatedly wrong! So a close eye is needed. Only your family member will know if the possibility of returns from the algo/bot is worth watching it like a hawk - compared to everything else they could be doing in other markets and in life in general. Serious business but fun is important and not added stress for the sake of doing "something".

Is the algo trading bot any different from the antics of crypto? BTC might triple in value and fall by two/thirds for a return of zero in a single year. Is this the same EXPECTED return pattern for the bot/algo?

There is a reason that major banks have stopped paying huge salaries and bonuses for large desks of specialist fx traders - many of these dealing desks have been shut down.

central banks prefer no significant fx price changes (even before Soros broke the Bank of England with money he did not have!)

PS - come to think of it, if the algo/bot can see all the trades being made by punters in the market (or a significant portion of some of them) taking the OPPOSITE side of the 70-90% that lose money - implies a 70-90% win rate!

Expand full comment

Much appreciated. Thanks very much.

Expand full comment

You are welcome.

Expand full comment

We are living through the biggest worldwide organized crime since WW2. The scale of the deception is too large for even many who consider themselves “in the know” to accept or comprehend as they remain trapped in some version of the "Covid" merry-go-round. Others are still asleep or traumatized as the social fabric is being smashed to pieces and the world around them is being completely transformed.

The financial elites know that they have run up massive unpayable debts and deficits. They know the promises of pensions and benefits cannot be paid. They know the system has reached its Waterloo and social unrest is inevitable.

They know they must act rapidly and comprehensively to subvert this inevitable collapse in order to protect the financial Leviathan which underpins their capacity to maintain power and control.

Put simply, Covid-19 was not a widespread medical emergency, it was a money laundering scheme, a massive psychological operation and a smoke screen for a complete overhaul and restructuring of the current social and economic world order.

That is what we are in the midst of.

Please disabuse yourself that this has anything to do with the CCP, Marxist politicians, Rooskies and Pootin, Virii from Venus, Al Qaeda redux, "The yellow peril", "Commies", Saddam's Ghost, Gain of Function anything or any of the myriad absurdities floating around the so-called 'Covid dissent' movement.

This has all to do with the Western financial aristocracy and their political viceroys attempting to forestall their corrupt system of control and erect a digital plantation.

Expand full comment

well said

Expand full comment