Peace is a battlefield - the shifting tectonic plates of geo-political economics - how thr US can cope and prosper

Here is a link to an economist’s view of the US and its declining significance in global economics.

Richard Wolff: The End of US Empire, Russia DESTROYS NATO Sanctions, and Rise of China & BRICS

Lots of interesting stuff, including a rebuttal of the utility of tariffs – that might form a key part of Trump’s economic policy – and the superiority of China’s EV’s in producing cars and trucks.

Here is the “teaser”.

“Economist Richard Wolff breaks down how Russia crushed NATO Sanctions, accelerating the collapse of the U.S. Empire amid China and BRICS rise. Discover the global shifts reshaping the balance of power and what it means for the economic and geopolitical future of our world.”

In essence, global economic development and progress has shifted to reflect the rise of BRICS and their increased use of energy to grow their economies.

From Brave AI:

“The combined GDP of BRICS is approximately $30 trillion, which represents around 29% of the world’s GDP. This figure includes the GDP of the original BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as well as the new members that joined in 2024 (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE).”

US GDP s around 27 trillion dollars.

“The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have a complex relationship with World Trade Organization (WTO) standards. While they are all WTO members, their engagement with WTO standards varies:”

Price, quality, volumes, compliance and conformance would appear to be less than rigorous!

“According to the “The BRICS Wealth Report: Challenging the Global Economic Order” (January 31, 2024), the BRICS bloc now represents more than 45% of the world’s population.”

Half the planet is a BRIC member.

Russia’s  Oresbnik missile may change the balance of military power globally, with its 3,000 mile range and speeds of ten times the speed of sound (Mach 10) , but NATO will no doubt be eying Space – X rocket capabilities of Mach 22 – with research into the possibility of expanding “Star Wars” capabilities and laser strikes on satellites and on instant hits on launch sites and vehicles using directed energy weapons – (DEW).

(How many of these missiles does Russia have (ten, 100>) and how long do they take to make (a week, dix months – can China and Iran mass produce them>)

In the YouTube video, Wolff attacks the use of sanctions and tariffs on an economic basis, He believes that the use of hydrocarbons to power any economy is destined to disappear, as mentioned above he does not believe that tariffs are a viable solution for the US and points out that the only reason the Chinese EV manufacturer BYD does not have a large presence in the US is because of a 100% tariff.

There are a number of issues with this line of reasoning. Of course, barriers to trade from any source, reduce choice and quality, increase costs and distort competition,

But this ignores the processes used to produce goods and services NOW and the methods used to produce them.

Gun fact: China generates around 30% of its electricity from renewables, compared to around 21% for the US, the remaining electricity generation is (mostly) produced from coal. In other words, batteries in Chinese EV’s are, mostly, 70% charged with coal powered electricity,

LBGTQ+ and DEI policies can best be described as problematic in Russia, China and Saudi Arabia – perhaps better described as hostile.

The Chinese have long been accused of using Uighur’s as slave labour. India has been accused of dumping steel. The EU has long charged a tariff on all imports via a device called Value Added Tax (VAT) of an average of 21.6% imposed on al imports as well as on EU residents and the EU has recently imposed all sorts of compliance costs on those seeking to import goods into the EU,

(100) EU rewrites every trade deal it has with the entire world via its new compliance directive

The first issue is, there are existing trade barriers that restrict free trade. The US does not compete on a “level playing field”.

 The second issue is that ANY transition to a different form of electricity generation takes years of development to become “economic” enough to replace the existing sources,

BRICS are outpacing the economic growth rate of the US because they use power sources that only replace existing generation when it is viable and the demand for energy is increasing rapidly.

The “net zero” policies of the EU, UK, Australia. Canada, and the outgoing Biden junta only cause higher debt and taxes and propel these already bankrupt economies into even deeper debt.

Hopefully DOGE under Musk can remove the dew trillion in extra government spending every year that the crass policies of Biden have enacted, though, perversely this will, on its own, contract GDP by around 7.5% (over two years?) in the same way it has inflated GDP by the same amount over the last three years!

I suggest the economic measures that restore the “level playing field” of external trade are simply an honest response to the differing forms of sanctions, tariffs and quotas imposed on US exporters, trying to access overseas markets.

Perhaps the measures taken by the EU can be examined, improved on and implemented to generate revenue for the US, same with restrictive trade practises and (cultural?) measures indigenous to China. Brazil, India and Russia (and the new BRICS).

There are a few other metrics that should be targeted by Trump.

One is targeting the consumer markets of BRICS to eradicate the trade deficit (which will boost growth) and he other is to increase the Labour Force Participation Rate to 70% from the low 60%’s which will boost economic growth and taxes.

Another issue is the price-gouging of Big Tech, Pharmacy Benefit Managers and tax evasion by Big Pharma – Pfizer pays no taxes by using shelf companies in the back streets of the Netherlands and siting its HQ in Ireland.

Big Tech and Prescription Benefit Managers (PBMs) operate with margins of between 25 and 60% with their books hidden where they operate federal contracts in the national security interest.

We have seen how these companies have been weaponised against the interests of the American people. For political purposes, they also are weaponised for their own interests against the America people.

Lastly, natural gas companies require very close scrutiny. A natural gas futures contract is for 10,000 mm BTU and costs around 3 bucks. This contains 3,000 MWH pf electricity - this might degrade to 1,000 MWH during processing through gas fired power stations but bears no resemblance to the average price of 15 cents per kwh charged to US households – which is equivalent to 150 bucks per MWH.

Three dollars compared to 150 dollars per MWH.

The price of natural gas supplied directly is mired in confusing metrics,

There is around 1,000 BTU in one cubic foot of natural gas, 1,000 BTU equates to 0.3 kwh.

1,000 cubic feet quates to 300 kwh.

The average price paid by US households is $15.2 per 1,000 cubic feet, for an equivalent of 300 kwh.

So, the equivalent price per kwh is around 5 cents per kwh or 50 bucks per MWH – compared to (a “no need to process”, raw material cost of 3 bucks per thousand MWH,

Directly supplied natural gas is one third the price of natural gas used to generate electricity – both are massively “price gouged” to US households.

Solving these issues will generate a huge and permanent boost to GDP far in excess of the 7.5% contraction in GDP that DOGE will cause by cutting government spending – hopefully led by cancelling all renewables contracts!

 $15.2 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Completely off-topic, here’s a few songs that were rung through my mind as I wrote this article.

Holst: The Planets, 'Mars' - BBC Proms

MTC London Removals Company - Available At Short Notice - Packing & Moving Company ,Fully Insured

Dire Straits - Telegraph Road - original studio version from Love Over Gold

The Dogs Of War

Onwards!!!

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