Political idiot’s guide to the creation of UK’s housing crisis
Sunday rant! May not be as organised as usual.
//The UK has a fifth the population of the US and is one tenth the size. Cackler Harris had plans to build 3 million homes for $500 billion dollars - arithmetic not being her strong point – the average house price In the US is over $400,000 – 500 billion divided by 3 million = $167,000 per house!!
Those 3 million new houses would have housed around 10 million illegal immigrants out of the 20-40 million illegal immigrants, resident in the US and make them Democratic Party voters for life.
The UK Labour government has similar plans to build 3 million new homes for immigrants – legal and illegal.
How many immigrants has the UK absorbed over the last 20 years or so?
From here:
Recent migration wave may cost country billions, warns CPS - The Centre for Policy Studies
“Earlier this week, the Conservative Party shone a spotlight on the need to reform the Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) system
Today, new CPS research shows that between January 2021 and June 2024, just over 2 million visas were issued to migrants who will be eligible to apply for ILR in the UK
The first of these migrants will be eligible for ILR beginning in January 2026, at which point they will gain access to the NHS, social housing and Universal Credit. After 10 years of paying National Insurance, those with ILR are entitled to the state pension
The briefing estimates that between 742,000 and 1,224,000 of these migrants are likely to be granted ILR in the coming years
In our central scenario, 801,000 migrants from the post-2020 wave gain ILR, the vast majority by the end of this decade
It is likely that many of these migrants, both workers and dependants, will represent a long-term cost to the taxpayer. Using the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assumptions about migrant earnings, our central estimate of the lifetime net fiscal cost is £234 billion – equivalent to a bill of £8,200 for every UK household, spread out over several decades. However, it could be very considerably more
Given the scale of recent migration, and the uncertainty as to how many new arrivals will pay their way, we should extend the length of time needed to be eligible for ILR, in order to have a proper debate about which migrants should be guaranteed a path to long-term residency
This hides the calamitous strain that immigration – legal and illegal – has placed on the – largely Victorian – infrastructure of the UK – built for a population of around 50 million compared to the almost 70 million inhabitants. Victorian Brits would have been far busier in solving this issue than today’s “wet” politicians.
The net migration to the UK is a problem that has been decades in the making.
Here is a chart taken from here:
Net migration to the UK - Migration Observatory - The Migration Observatory
A steady net migration of over 200,000 a year from 2005 to 2019 then the recent explosion to 800,000 in recent years to yield net migration of around 4 million.
Numbers corroborated here:
How many migrants come to the UK? – Full Fact
“Based on ONS administrative data, annual net migration between 2012 and 2023 totalled 4.26 million.”
The population of the UK In 2005 was 60 million, implying that indigenous population growth over the last 20 years is 6 million, equal to 10%, half per cent a year for 20 years.
Politicians that govern the UK prefer immigration to home grown talent - the education system has failed to provide the workers that are needed domestically.
Consider this. The housing plans of the Labour government to build 3 million new homes over this Parliamentary term, represent the costs to the economy of net migration.
3 million new homes to house egal and illegal immigrants and relieve the UK’s housing crisis demands.
From here:
3 million homes is the equivalent of building a dozen new cities in the UK. The average, all-up orc f each house – including all the roads, street lighting, water and sewage plus gas and electricity hook-up etc is around half a million each.
3 million homes @ half a million each is £750 billion in spending in 4-5 years. The government has not broken ground on a single access road or foundation of a new “green” house as yet.
Will the legal and illegal migrant crisis cost the UK 150 billion a year for five years in direct and indirect costs?
Maybe.
In the meanwhile, the UK is “handling” the problem by housing illegal and legal immigrants I “temporary” accommodation,
Here’s a story from late 2021:
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/12/09/meet-the-companies-for-which-asylum-policy-is-big-business/
“Five companies have won £5.8 billion worth of contracts since 2010 to run asylum and migrant services – despite being beset by complaints and scandals, according to new analysis by the Byline Intelligence Team and The Citizens. “
“A spokesperson from SOAS Detainee Support told Byline Times: “The capitalist, globalised border industry encompasses a network of private contractors reaping massive profits from border enforcement, detention, deportation, and surveillance. The UK is among the biggest profiteers, with British mega-companies like Serco, G4S, and Mitie harming migrants not just here but around the world.”
Then there’s headlines like these:
Government to drop asylum hotel provider Stay Belvedere Hotels - BBC News
“The government will end a contract with a provider of hotel places for asylum seekers after an audit identified concerns about the firm's performance.”
“Stay Belvedere Hotels (SBHL) provides around a quarter of Home Office asylum accommodation in 51 hotels in England and Wales. It also operates Napier Barracks in Kent, which houses people awaiting asylum decisions and is due to close in September.”
“SBHL was sub-contracted under a £2bn-a-year deal agreed between accommodation services provider Clearsprings and the previous government in 2019.”
When the BBC says “end”, what it means is, that the company will be paid until late 2026.
“The earliest point at which the Home Office can exit its asylum accommodation contracts without a break penalty is in September of next year.”
September 2026.
Here’s some numbers on asylum seekers from the BBC article:
“There were 112,187 asylum seekers being supported in the UK at the end of 2024:
38,079 (34%) were in hotel accommodation. That figure is 32% lower than the peak of 56,042 at the end of September 2023
70,986 (63%) were in other accommodation, including initial, contingency and dispersal accommodation
3,122 (3%) were in receipt of subsistence support only.
The government is looking at plans for failed asylum seekers whose appeals have been exhausted to possibly be sent to the Balkans.
More than 5,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel on small boats so far this year, according to latest figures.
In 2024 as a whole, 36,816 were detected making the dangerous crossing in small boats.”
Those numbers are for asylum seekers – not for the other 4 million immigrants who arrived in the last 20 years or so.
How much does it cost for the other 3.9 million immigrants? I guesstimate that direct and indirect costs are of the same order as those for asylum seekers.
The UK government pays all costs – for food, utilities (including cable), room service etc.
100,000 migrants enjoying £100 a night accommodation - £10 million a night - £3.65 billion a year.
Serco is another of the “milkers of migrant support”.
Serco.
Homeowners offered money by Serco to host Channel migrants - LBC
That headline is from October 2022.
“Homeowners are being offered contracts to take in Channel migrants as the government struggles with record numbers arriving on Britain's shores.”
“The UK is now spending around £2.4 billion a year on hotel bills while asylum applications and processed, and with more than 38,000 arriving so far this year, rooms are running out.
Now private contractor Serco is offering people contracts of up to five years to take migrants in themselves to deal with the numbers, the Sun reports.
The offers will guarantee rent in full every month, and will also cover maintenance costs, council tax and gas and electricity bills.
It comes as Home Office officials said that among the arrivals were 10,000 Albanians, leading to fear about the dominance of organised crime in the crossings.”
The story has re-surfaced as Serco is hosting a meeting of landlords to give the offer wider reach,
Here’s a link to a story about the providers < Belvedere and Serco, for context:
https://www.express.co.uk/news2/uk/2046308/stay-belvedere-hotels-asylum-seekers-700-million
and here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/29/serco-profit-outlook-demand-immigration-services
“Serco has said it expects to make higher profits during 2023 after reporting rising demand for workers to run immigration services for the UK government.”
Big money for a grubby business.
From Brave AI:
“Serco manages several prisons in the UK. It manages Category B, C, and D prisons and operates two Immigration Removal Centres since 2007. Serco is responsible for the contracted-out court escort services in the south-east area, formerly a role undertaken by HM Prison Service. Specifically, Serco manages prisons such as HMP Ashfield, HMP Doncaster, and HMP Dovegate, focusing on providing safe and supportive environments for rehabilitation.”
I wonder why the UK government did not contract Serco to build migrant camps.
Or even why the UK government hasn’t commissioned the “3D” printing of homes?
Here is Brave AI’s take on social housing waiting lists overseen by local councils:
“As of the latest data available, the number of people on UK council housing waiting lists varies significantly by region.
For instance, in London, the situation is particularly severe, with some boroughs like Lambeth having more than 22,000 people waiting for over five years. Nationally, the figures are concerning, with 217,000 households waiting in excess of five years for a home, and nearly 68,000 households waiting more than 10 years.
These statistics highlight the ongoing housing crisis in the UK, where the shortage of affordable housing has led to long waiting times and significant challenges for those in need of council housing.”
Asylum seekers are a fraction of th pressure on the housing crisis. There are more than 4 million net migrants – legal and illegal – that have caused the crisis.
100,000 asylum seekers are costing £3.65 billion a year.
4 million net migrants costing around half that in direct and indirect costs = £75 billion a year for five years, £275 billion, compared to £750 billion to build 12 new cities that have some sort of slum value.
A rock and a hard place.
All a bit arbitrary as the UK does not have the capacity to fund either – it is in debt to the tune of several trillion (£2.6 trillion) pounds that it has no intention of ever paying back.
The Labour government would far rather impose costs of £7-10 trillion on the economy on a flawed transition to “net zero” by 2050.
Oh well, if it was down to me, I would pay “off-duty” military staff a bounty for each boat destroyed on the French beaches and the Navy to do the same – once the coastguard had off-loaded its cargo. That would take care of “boat people”.
I wonder if there is a breakdown of the numbers of immigrants from “safe” countries that are unemployed in the UK – that don’t speak English?
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Onwards!!!