There goes the Sun – what is NOT in any of the UN IPCC climate models - studies of solar activity point to a mini ice-age will occur in the next few decades – no global warming for almost 8 years
All that rhetoric In the European Green Deal and the “Green New Deal” is not only based on faux Earth climate science, it also ignores by far the biggest influencer of the climate of the Earth – the Sun.
For a bit of context, check this out for what has not been revealed by the chicken little sycophants in the MSM – who have a tiny Overton Window to peer out of.
Satellite Data Shows No Global Warming For Eight Years, Nine Months - Climate Change Dispatch
“While the international hotheads are screeching about impending doom, level headed observers point to data that clearly show a pause in warming, which has been mild and as likely natural as it is human-caused, has now reached eight years and nine months.
There has been no rise in global temperatures from July 2015 to March 2023.”
Well, bit of an issue there - July 2015 to March 2023 is 7 years 8 months, not 8 years 9 months! Looks similar to one of my occasional “faux pas”!
On to the big, bright, shiny thing that dominates the climate on Planet Earth.
h/t DrLatusDextro - (100) Loitering On The Edge | DrLatusDextro | Substack
From this article posted in August 2022:
These are estimations, based on sophisticated models (I know, right?) – albeit within margins of decades – that point to global cooling starting now’ish.
You can check out the detail of the research done over many years, but here are the “bottom lines” from each of the 11.
“The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11.”
That estimation is for a new “little” ice age to start 10 years after the 2050 “plucked from somewhere” chicken little advertising slogan plus or minus 11 years.
“This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum (2020–2053) can offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth.”
That estimation is current – “we’ve only just begun”.
“This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450).”
Sounds like a lot worse than a “little ice age”. That segment concludes “.. evidence provided is sufficient to justify a complete updating and reviewing of present climate models to better consider these detected natural recurrences and lags in solar processes.“
The next estimation refers to effects over the next hundreds of years and refers to planetary forcing as well as a solar minimum.
“It should be noted that all proponents of planetary forcing have forecasted a solar Grand Minimum for the upcoming decades, but one of them has also forecasted a Super Minimum for the next centuries (Perry and Hsu, 2000).”
The next estimation is smack bang in the middle of the 2030-2050 targeted periods of the “little Green men and women behind the AGW climate cult.
“By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum.”
Next estimation:
“.. we, in fact, are approaching a New Grand Solar Minimum in about 2030-2050. In analogy with the documented climate conditions during the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima, we may expect the return of a New Little Ice Age.”
That’s the complete opposite of the “goal seek” planning cycle of the squawking chicken little dates! 2030-2050.
Next:
“The model forecasts a new prolonged grand solar minimum during 2020-2045.”
Starting to think all these estimations have the same source and are not independent!
Next:
“Current predictions on Solar activity show that we are in a low sunspot cycle, which is similar to that of the 1900 Minimum, and subsequent cycles are predicted to have even lower Solar activity, and therefore a drop in global temperatures is expected.”
Okay, no specific dates, but an unequivocal view on direction of temperature changes – downwards!
Next:
“The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot MINIMUM from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.”
Another “It’s only just begun”!
Next and last:
“If one adds the 350-year cycle from the McCracken result to the center of the Maunder Minimum which was centered in 1680, one would have a Grand Minimum centered in the year 2030.”
2030.. where have we seen that date before?
As the authors of the article point out:
“The science is never settled. Ever. Period.” and “Sleepless nights over a trace atmospheric gas–necessary for life on Earth–will soon be regarded as sheer folly.”
Onwards!
Please upgrade to paid, or donate a coffee (I drink a lot of coffee) - “God Bless You!” if you can’t or don’t want to contribute. Coffee donations here: https://ko-fi.com/peterhalligan - Buying just one Ko-Fi a week for $3 is 50 bucks more than an annual $100 subscription!
Hi Peter - published recently:
EXCESS DEATHS BACK WITH A VENGEANCE IN THE UK AND GERMANY (SUBSTACK.COM)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/excess-deaths-back-with-a-vengeance/comment/14821059
Hi Igor - I nailed this way back in 2002, then in 2013, and then in Nov2022:
"This winter will be hell, especially in Britain and Germany." - MacRae, Nov2022.
Britain and Germany over-invested in near-useless Wind Power and made the heating of homes unaffordable. That energy shortage, along with the Covid-19 vaxx-caused deaths, contributed to this winter's carnage in those two countries. They were fortunate in that this winter was mild - it could have been much worse.
Politicians are energy imbeciles - keep them away from the hot stove.
I posted the following prediction in Nov2022:
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-11-29-dont-be-so-sure-that-the-climate-extremists-have-won
This will not be easy to watch. I told you so 20 years ago.
This winter will be hell, especially in Britain and Germany.
PREDICTION OF THE CARNAGE THIS WINTER IN EUROPE
The cull of the elderly and poor
We published the important conclusions to this debate in 2002 and nothing has changed:
The alleged Climate Crisis is a fifty-year-old scam, and “green energy” is not green and does not produce much useful energy.
The Climate scammers have wasted trillions of dollars and millions of lives on fraud.
FOR THE RECORD, WE PUBLISHED IN 2002:
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
I PUBLISHED ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 in the Calgary Herald:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
I UPDATED MY GLOBAL COOLING PREDICTION IN 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
[Some say global cooling started in Feb2016, but I prefer Feb2020.]
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA
British Undersecretary for Energy and Climate Change, 31Oct2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
See CorrectPredictions.ca and my papers listed therein for proof.
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary
https://energy-experts-international.com/
Thank you, Peter. "There has been no rise in global temperatures from July 2015 to March 2023.”
HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series. McKitrick RR. Open Journal of Statistics, 2014, 4, 527-535. "The IPCC has drawn attention to an apparent leveling-off of globally-averaged temperatures over the past 15 years or so." ... "Here, I propose a method for estimating the duration of the hiatus that is robust to unknown forms of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) in the temperature series and to cherry-picking of endpoints." ... "Application of the method shows that there is now a trendless interval of 19 years duration at the end of the HadCRUT4 surface temperature series, and of 16 - 26 years in the lower troposphere. Use of a simple AR1 trend model suggests a shorter hiatus of 14 - 20 years but is likely unreliable."
Typically referred to as 'The Pause' once again global warming was falsified again as it was between 1940 - 1979 (when chicken-little scientivists squawked incipient ice age). Nb. The Pause was vigorously "denied" by the Mannian club and WaterMelons in the same breath as they endeavoured to expunge the inconvenient 'medieval warm period'. There is truly nothing new (other than a 4 Trojan Horsemen of the UNApocalypse - Climatism, Safeism, Healthism and Racism).
AN ESTIMATE OF THE CENTENNIAL VARIABILITY OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURES. Lloyd PJ. Energy & Environment · Vol. 26, No. 3, 2015. "The Holocene ice core records up to 8000 years before present were examined. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data had been removed. The differences were close to normally distributed. The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 ± 0.27C." ie. Business as usual. (apart from chicken littles and those damned horses).