Initial thoughts on the first signs of policy from the putative head chimp of the UK’s Labour ‘government – government by post code and DEVOLUTION away from the Westminster bubble.
There is a complete absence of evidence that devolution works - he should start with fiscal deficits per post code and work from there!
Let’s set the scene with lessons learned from other SIGNIFICANT DEVOLTION areas of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland..
SCOTLAND population 5.6 million.
From Brave AI:
“Scottish devolution officially began on 1 July 1999, when the Scottish Parliament convened for the first time following the passage of the Scotland Act 1998.
You won’t find any record of GDP for 1999, making analysis over the last 25 years impossible.
“Scotland’s average annual GDP growth rate was 1.4% over the period 2000 to 2019, a significant decline from the 2.4% average growth seen between 2000 and 2007
Fiscal position:
“Based on the provided search context, Scotland’s fiscal deficit in 1999/2000 was -£2,208 million (£-2.2 billion) in cash terms, according to the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) historical data.
“Scotland’s fiscal deficit has generally expanded since the early 2000s, rising from a negligible balance in 2000/01 to a significant deficit of £26.2 billion in 2024/25. “
“In 2024/25, Scotland’s deficit was more than double the UK-wide deficit of 5.1% of GDP (approximately £14 billion higher per person than the UK average). While Scotland historically benefited from North Sea revenues, its reliance on implicit fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK has increased, with per-person spending in Scotland being 14% higher than the UK average in 2024/25.from 2000, Scotland’s deficit has been around £15 billion pounds- accumulating over the last 20 years to around 300 billion pounds – one tenth of the UK’s 3 trillion pounds debt pile.
“Scotland’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated at £223.4 billion in 2024, or approximately £218.0 billion in 2023, including offshore oil and gas extraction. When excluding North Sea revenues (onshore only), the 2024 GDP was £209.5 billion.”
Wales -devolution in 1996, population a little over 3 million.
Wales has similarly run a fiscal deficit mostly in excess of 15% of GDP for the last few decades” which accumulates to another 300 billion pounds over 20 years.
Wales’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated at £92.8 billion in 2023, representing 3.4% of the total UK GDP.
Northern Ireland (Ulster) -devolution in 2006 population just under 2 million.
Northern Ireland’s GDP was £63.3 billion in 2023, with a GDP per capita of £32,944
“Northern Ireland has maintained a fiscal deficit every year since 1966, with the gap between local taxation and government spending historically averaging around £10 billion per annum in recent decades. The deficit peaked in 2009–10 at approximately £11.5 billion (in 2014 pounds) and £12.7 billion in real terms by 2010, driven by rising public spending and falling tax revenues. Following the 2008 recession, the deficit fell by roughly 25% in real terms over the subsequent decade, settling at around £9.4 billion to £9.5 billion by the late 2010s.
There is no evidence of the success of devolution in these 3 distinct countries. Instead they have contributed a significant amount to the national debt and deficits of the United Kingdom.
So, on what basis does the new putative ‘head chimp’ claim that DEVOLUTION is the answer for the woes of the UK and its major metropolitan areas?
Remember the UK’s major metropolitan councils are extremely badly run and are corrupt.
From February 2026:
“In the frame are useless and expensive IT systems run by companies like Capita, unregulated LOBO loans and the big 4 Consultancy firms (Deloitte, PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers), EY (Ernst & Young), and KPMG) who charge £1,500 per day for strategic ‘Treasury’ advice, and charge again to put it right when it fails.
The outcome is failing councils with billions of debt, cutting services because of interest payments on debt that soaks up a huge chunk of ratepayers taxes – half of all councils will be bankrupt within 5 years.
“Nine UK councils have declared effective bankruptcy since 2018.
And from May 2026:
“None of the political campaigns for local authorities campaigned on slashing local taxes by addressing the corruption and inefficiencies or bloated salary/benefits of employees. the Greens even campaigned in Irdu!”
It is unclear why giving such local authorities even more money to mismanage would result in any better outcomes for UK Citizens.
Whitehall may by incompetent and may centralize decision-making, but unless and until monkey brain Burnham can calculate the fiscal deficits for each significant postcode he will risk further widening the gap between the post codes of Britain and also encourage even more corruption.
Does Burnham propose a pro rata allocation of every civil service department and type of civil servant into every postcode? How does he propose to monitor national standards in health, education and housing etc. I suspect that rich local authorities will resent bailing out the ghettos of poorer local authorities!
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