Refresher on the Under Reporting Factor (URF) – The Giant Syringe in the Room

Given that there are a few thousand more subscribers (feel free to upgrade to paid - 😉) since I posted this in November 2022, I thought I would repost some of the links to different ways to calculate the URF for the USA. It might serve to inform those that did not read the article at the time and those that want to be reminded.

Safe and effective?!?!?!

First “vaccine safety”.

Here is the link to the possible “butchers bill” of dead and wounded from C19 injections.:

C19 Injection global death toll - somewhere between 9 million and 45 million. Injuries somewhere between 840 million and 4.2 billion (multiple injuries per person) (substack.com)

Horowitz estimated 30

Kirsch, Rose et al 41

A reconciliation of V-Safe to VAERS got to 60

Lazarus report was 100

Links to each reposted below.

https://www.conservativereview.com/horowitz-cdc-data-shows-vaers-is-the-tip-of-vaccine-injury-iceberg-2658689415.html Horowitz = URF of 30

The Under Reporting Factor in VAERS

 which has an embedded hyperlink to this detailed piece https://www.skirsch.com/covid/Deaths.pdf URF of 41

https://vaersanalysis.info/2022/10/08/estimating-the-under-reporting-factor-urf-in-vaers-by-way-of-the-recently-released-v-safe-data/ V-Safe to VAERS reconciliation of 60

https://decodingthedeception.com/document-knowledge-base-2/the-lazarus-report/ URF of 100.

We can now add this one based on boot-strapping of social circles (similar to the Rasmussen opinion poll of several weeks ago and to Steve Kirsch’s surveys.

Pre-print study with another way to estimate the VAERS under-reporting factor for deaths up to 31 December 2021 (bootstrapping and social circles) – ANSWER = around 35 (substack.com) URF of around 35.

Ed: An updated one - 22 Oct 2023

adf864_4c3afc4436234a96aa1f60bb6e677719.pdf (publichealthpolicyjournal.com)

“the recalculated nationwide estimate of COVID-19 vaccine fatalities is about 287,000” and that is just for 2021.

End ed.

So, a range of URF’s between 30 and 100. What does this mean? Well let’s pick a URF of 40. Remember one in 40 represents just 2.5% of adverse events ever get reported. The Lazarus Report of a URF of 100 implies just 1% of adverse events ever get reported. You would hope that deaths – especially “spontaneous deaths” as the European Medical Agency describes them – are reported with a much higher frequency – maybe one to one.

All the data we need to make informed decisions and conduct rational analysis is denied. It exists, but is withheld by the regulatory agencies – the CDC and FDA. They work for themselves not for us. Hell, we don’t even know the numbers that died post-infection who previously had C19 once or twice – or if mixing Pfizer and Moderna doses was more or less deadly! Some studies have been done in clinical settings, but real world data is just sitting there and access is denied by public servants.

From here:

Another week, another 180 ( v 228 last week) Americans reported dead to VAERS amongst 2,590 (v 9,225 last week) adverse events (substack.com)

Scaling up the US only deaths amongst adverse events by the Under Reporting Factor of 40 reported to VAERS, we get 668,680 US deaths amongst 37.3 million adverse events.

From here, CDC COVID Data Tracker: Vaccinations in the US there have been 670 million doses administered. 269 million Americans have received at least one dose, meaning that those with at least one dose have, on average received 670/269 = two and a half doses each.

Now, if around 670,000 Americans have died from 670 million doses, this implies that for every 1,000 doses administered, one American has died – SO FAR.

It also implies that if around 37 million Americans have been injured from those 670 million doses, for every 1,000 doses, 55 Americans have been injured.

Note that the V-Safe data revealed that 1.5% (15 per 1,000) resulted in a visit to ER/ED and 0.7% (7 per 1,000) required hospitalization amongst a population of 10 million or so cell phone users that signed up to V-Safe.

This implies that 22 per 1,000 people suffered “Serious” (life threatening) injuries and the remainder of 33, suffered “Severe” (life altering) injuries – assuming that no-one would bother reporting mild or easily recovered injection injuries.

We could assume that the rate of fatalities and injuries is constant, but this is not certain either. I suspect the URF is increasing the more remote from the injection. My bet is the URF for deaths and injuries is approaching 60 or even 70.

Now for “vaccine effectiveness”

Here are couple of charts showing the cases and deaths for the US – note this is very much “Garbage In and Garbage Out” since the Drosten RT-PCR test was useless in designating cases and by extension deaths. Nor did the test detect infectiousness or transmissibility – in the same way that C19 mRNA injections were never tested to prevent infectiousness or transmissibility.

Number of C19 “cases” in the US before the roll-out of injections at end 2020 = 20.8 million

Number of C19 “cases” now = 104.8 million – 5 times higher times

Number of C19 “deaths with C19 present” prior to injections = 370,000

Number of C19 “deaths” now = 1,140,000 – 3 times higher.

Now has could anyone on the planet from a kindergartener to a nonagenarian describe the injections as “effective”.

Lastly, the “recovery rate” from “cases” of C19 in the US is over 97% (101.94 million recoveries from 104.63 million cases). That is for 32% of “cases” detected in the US over a full three years of the pandemic. A “case” rate of around 10% per annum. What is the point of a procedure that puts your life at higher risk than the disease?

Regular readers will recall that of those that died with C19 present, 94% had between 2-6 co-morbidities and had lived 2 years longer than average life expectancy.

Completely ineffective in preventing C19 – the recovery rate exceeded even the misleading “Relative Risk Reduction” claimed by Pfizer and Moderna in their clinical trials.

Post script - I wonder how many “sudden deaths” (or “deaths from unknown causes” have been reported to VAERS?

Onwards!

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